Surprise currently has 34 childcare centers, but a new analysis suggests that number may not be nearly enough to keep up with the city's growth. The West Valley suburb could see demand for childcare spike by roughly 1,400 additional children under age 5 by 2030, according to a Building Bright Futures report, raising questions about whether existing capacity can keep pace with families moving in.
The findings, first detailed by ABC15 Arizona, paint a picture of a city caught between rapid growth and a childcare system already stretched thin. Surprise also has five group homes serving the community, per the same Building Bright Futures analysis, but existing childcare capacity may struggle to meet future demand, the analysis found. For parents already navigating the system, the strain is not an abstraction — it is a daily calculation of time, money and availability.
Kelie Jaycox said finding daycare often involves a waiting list or costs hundreds of dollars per week, according to the station's report. She added that daycare expenses can consume a working mother's earnings, and that the costs can make working financially impractical for some families altogether. Those are not hypothetical trade-offs — they are decisions playing out in households across the West Valley right now, as affordable childcare makes it harder for many families to stay in the workforce, families say.
Growth Is Outpacing the Systems Meant to Support It
The West Valley is experiencing continued growth, with communities across the region adding residents, businesses and jobs. That expansion is increasing pressure on housing, transportation and childcare systems simultaneously, according to the same ABC15 report. Kimberly Jordan said the West Valley is experiencing a hyper-growth period, and she noted that childcare, housing and transportation barriers directly affect workforce attraction and retention — meaning the childcare gap isn't just a family problem, it's an economic one for employers trying to hire and keep workers in the region.
That framing lines up with statewide numbers. Arizona had an estimated 460,882 children under age 6 who potentially needed child care in 2024, but only 256,267 licensed slots existed to serve them, according to the Common Sense Institute. In Maricopa County specifically, the group found enough slots to cover only about 15% of children under age six — and licensed providers statewide have fallen by nearly half since 2002, even as Arizona's population has surged, per the First Five Years Fund. The institute's research shows the state had 5,126 licensed childcare providers in 2002 but just 2,779 by 2024, a 46% decline.
Costs Have Climbed Even as Capacity Has Shrunk
The price of care has moved in the opposite direction of availability. The average cost of licensed infant care in Arizona is now $61 per day, up 42% since 2018, according to a report covered by Chamber Business News. Statewide, the average annual cost of child care now sits at $15,964, or $1,330 per month, the First Five Years Fund reports — a figure that can rival rent for many households. The Common Sense Institute separately found daily infant care costs at licensed centers rose 42.7% statewide between 2018 and 2024, with Maricopa County seeing a 42.3% increase in that span, while Santa Cruz County's infant care capacity — enough for just 1% of its infant population — saw an even sharper 52.1% cost increase, illustrating how uneven the squeeze can be across the state.
The economic stakes extend well beyond individual family budgets. Childcare shortages limit workforce participation and hold back economic growth, the report covered by Chamber Business News found, estimating that expanding access to affordable, quality childcare could add up to 233,600 jobs statewide and generate between $5.4 billion and $34 billion in additional GDP over five years. WESTMARC, described in the ABC15 report as a regional economic development coalition representing West Valley communities, has reported that childcare affordability has become a workforce issue in its own right, not just a family hardship.
Regional Leaders Weigh Cost-Sharing and New Funding Sources
WESTMARC is studying Tri-Share childcare models, a cost-sharing approach in which a state government, an employer and an employee each pay a share of childcare costs, according to the CLASP. Michigan rolled out its own Tri-Share program in 2021 to help workers re-enter or stay in the workforce, and CLASP reports it cut participants' average monthly childcare payment from $716 to $252. Similar programs have since launched in North Carolina, Kentucky and Noble County, Indiana, though CLASP cautions that Tri-Share reduces families' out-of-pocket costs without, on its own, improving provider pay or the quality of care.
WESTMARC is also examining housing developments with on-site childcare facilities and housing built near major employment centers, the coalition's research shows. One possible model already exists close to home: Maricopa County recently introduced on-site childcare for families with children ages six weeks to five years as an employee benefit, according to Maricopa County. Kimberly Jordan has proposed setting aside a portion of data-center tax revenue for critical community services, noting that data centers generate substantial tax revenue for local governments — revenue she suggested could help support childcare and early childhood education programs throughout the West Valley. WESTMARC says it is working with business leaders, local governments and community organizations as it plans to identify long-term childcare solutions for the region.
