In an unexpected twist of fate, a Texas economics professor has outpaced the competition to become the nation's most accurate economic forecaster for the past year. Belinda Román, an associate professor at St. Mary's University, edged out 71 other contenders in the Wall Street Journal's annual forecasting contest, according to a statement obtained by San Antonio Report. Román's predictions were spot-on in a year marked by volatility and uncertainty, besting a slew of industry and academic economists with her projections on growth, inflation, and employment rates.
Despite winning what could be likened to the Super Bowl for economists, Román expressed that her efforts were never about coming out on top. "I did the work because, first of all, my job is to maintain my professional skills so I can help my students," Román told Express News. Nevertheless, her accurate predictions, including a forecast of 2.8% GDP growth that nearly mirrored the actual 3.1% reported by the U.S. Department of Commerce, have garnered considerable attention.
The Texas professor attributes her accurate forecasting to a unique perspective shaped not just by national trends but also by local conditions. She pointed out to the San Antonio Report how regional dynamics, particularly in buoyant cities like Austin, Dallas, and San Antonio, can alter the big picture. "When you do these really big aggregates of the whole United States, sometimes if there’s a drag in California or in New York… you tend to overemphasize that and not recognize what’s going on inside that big story," Román explained.
Román's expertise extends beyond the classroom and into real-world applications. She has worked with the federal government on border and immigration analyses and is currently involved in a three-year project examining the local economic costs of diabetes, a particular concern for her community in San Antonio, a city she calls "Diabetes Central." Her multidisciplinary approach is reflective of her varied experience and academic credentials which include a master's at Texas Christian University, attending the London School of Economics, and earning a doctorate from the University of Western Ontario in Canada.
In looking ahead to 2024, Román maintains an optimistic yet cautious stance regarding the economic outlook for places like San Antonio. While acknowledging threats to the economy, such as border and immigration issues that could impact trade, she remains hopeful about the city's growth potential. However, Román warns in the Express News interview that unbalanced growth can be detrimental if the benefits are not equitably distributed. She probes further into the potential challenges for the national economy, mentioning that the "geopolitical environment that’s challenging" could soften the strong indicators for 2024.
Despite the spotlight, Román remains devoted to her role as an educator, aiming to inspire her students by passing along the values of rigorous analysis and societal contribution. Her recent recognition has brought attention to the university and energized her students, serving as a testament to the practical application of economic skills and knowledge far beyond the confines of Wall Street or major financial institutions.
