Houston, brace yourselves: Forecasters are predicting a hurricane season that could go down in the books. AccuWeather and Colorado State University (CSU) have released projections suggesting a significant uptick in Atlantic storm activity for 2024, with a focus on the Houston region, which could see its fair share of the action.
AccuWeather's forecasters are calling for an active season, predicting 20 to 25 named storms and 8 to 12 hurricanes brewing in the Atlantic; their lead hurricane forecaster, Alex DaSilva, has raised the alarm, expecting "well above the historical average" for 2024, according to a statement obtained by the Texas Standard. Echoing that sentiment, CSU researchers are pointing to a "very busy" hurricane season with an estimated 23 named storms, 11 of which they say could escalate to hurricanes with five potentially reaching major hurricane status this statement was supported by CSU's lead forecaster, Dr. Phil Klotzbach, who attributed the increased activity to above-normal sea surface temperatures and the expected presence of La Niña conditions, which reduce the vertical wind shear that typically inhibits storm formation, this was reported by KHOU.
However, Space City Weather meteorologist Eric Berger has expressed skepticism about the dramatic language used by some forecasters, asserting, "I wouldn’t necessarily take issue with their numbers, but I think using a word like explosive is a form of fearmongering," he told the Texas Standard. Nonetheless, Berger acknowledges the likelihood of a busier season and emphasizes that Houston area residents must prepare.
Despite these predictions, the historical reality tells us forecasting exact hurricane impacts is a guessing game at best The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, which saw a similar number of storms as predicted for this year, spared Houston/Galveston any impact, a stark reminder provided by Dr. Klotzbach that "it only takes one storm" to change everything, as he told KHOU. With more updates to come throughout the season, CSU is set to issue further forecasts in the months to follow, as Houstonians and coastal dwellers keep a watchful eye on the developing situation.
