Houston residents should brace themselves for a series of potentially severe weather conditions rolling in over the next few days. According to the National Weather Service's latest forecast, today's high is expected to reach around 90 degrees under mostly sunny skies with a southeast breeze. However, by tonight, the chances of showers jump to 20 percent after 4 am and persist into Thursday, when the likelihood of thunderstorms intensifies. The detailed forecast for Houston warns of a 70 percent chance of thunderstorms on Thursday, with new rainfall between a quarter and half an inch possible, and similar conditions expected Thursday night.
The situation appears to escalate, as the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK, has placed the region in a slight risk category for severe thunderstorms. According to their outlook, "Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Texas South Plains across north/central Texas and into east/southeast Texas on Thursday. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible across portions of the Mid Mississippi Valley."
The National Weather Service's hazardous weather outlook echoes this sentiment, cautioning that storms could grow strong or severe and that the region could see locally heavy rainfall. Thunderstorm development could begin along and north of the warm front by early Thursday afternoon, aided by moderate warm-air advection across the warm sector. There is also talk of significant hail, potentially accompanying the strongest of these storms.
The Storm Prediction Center explained the weather system's context, revealing a southern-stream shortwave trough heading eastward across the Southwest and into the southern Plains which may stir up the strong to severe thunderstorms. Winds, which could gust up to 25 mph, are also prime conditions for isolated hail storms, and even the possibility of a tornado or two, especially in the event of supercell development. They also predict that increased low-level moisture will invigorate the buoyancy across the warm sector, which may lead to more severe weather disruptions.
The local NWS office in Houston took to X to ensure Houstonians are aware of the impending weather change, reminding them of the developing thunderstorms as Thursday approaches. According to their post, "Some storms could become strong/severe, and locally heavy rain will be possible." Residents are encouraged to stay updated on the weather as the week progresses and prepare for the likelihood of disruptions brought on by these temperamental weather patterns.
Here are the today/tonight/Thu temp outlooks. Still expecting increasing shower/storm coverage as the day progresses on Thu in association with the next storm system. Some storms could become strong/severe, and locally heavy rain will be possible. #txwx #houwx #glswx #bcswx pic.twitter.com/oSp4K17x2A
— NWS Houston (@NWSHouston) May 15, 2024
