Honolulu's weather forecast anticipates a weakening high pressure system that's stationed north of the Hawaiian Islands, a trend expected to persist for the coming days. According to the National Weather Service - Honolulu, trade wind speeds will maintain a moderate to breezy range until Sunday, eventually dwindling down to moderate levels from Monday onward. Current predictions also suggest a stable atmospheric layer above that will likely put a lid on shower activity for the majority of next week, aside from a marginal increase in cloud and showers expected today due to a weak easterly wave moving across the islands.
The forecast detailed by NWS - Honolulu indicates that today will be witness to a slight uptick in cloud and shower trends as a result of a weak easterly wave. This system is in the process to slowly traverse the island chain, raising the trade wind temperature inversion and in turn, increasing moist conditions into the evening. "Most of the enhanced showers will form during the typical diurnal rainfall maximum in the overnight to early morning hours," the NWS noted, implying that while conditions are relatively dry, humidity is expected to spike during the night.
For aviators, breezy trade winds are on the menu today and tonight, with heightened gusts occurring from mid-morning until the late afternoon. Windward and mauka regions should particularly brace for sporadic MVFR cigs/vsbys. Aviation-related advisories, namely AIRMET Sierra and Tango, are firmly in place, flagging concerns for mountain obscuration and turbulence over and downwind of island terrains, expected to carry on throughout the day.
In maritime concerns, the strong surface high pressure northeast of Hawaii continues to generate trades strong enough to warrant a Small Craft Advisory through Sunday for various regions, including Maalaea Bay and the Big Island leeward waters. With trades set to ease early next week, the advisory reflects the forecast's expectation of fresh to strong trade winds persisting over the weekend. "Surf along east facing shores will remain choppy with short period wind waves," the NWS - Honolulu points out, alerting surfers to current sea conditions.
Concerning fire weather, areas on the leeward side, particularly West Maui and leeward Kohala, are highlighted for elevated risk due to the brisk trade winds and low humidity, expected to linger through Sunday. Humidity levels are predicted to recover decently overnight, with the notable exception of higher elevations, which may remain warmer and drier, sitting above the temperature inversion layer that typically caps vertical development of clouds and showers.
