As the high pressure system lingers far north of Hawaii, it's set to gradually fade and shift westward in the coming days. According to a recent forecast released by NWS - Honolulu, residents and visitors can expect more of the same with moderate to locally brisk trade winds through tomorrow before a slight dip midweek. Stable conditions mean a familiar pattern: showers are likely to pepper windward and mauka neighborhoods, primarily during the overnight and early morning hours.
Staying true to the summertime cadence, leeward areas are predicted to stay mostly parched, save for the Big Island's kona slopes which might see some sea breeze showers in the evenings. The current models also suggest we're about to see an intensification of showers driven by a band of moisture that's set to breeze through the islands, especially affecting the habitual windward and mauka zones. Simultaneously, an inversion base holding at 4,000-6,000 feet through the week should serve to limit any aspiring cloud growth and subsequent precipitation, particularly in the latter half of the week.
In terms of wind, a low pressure system may emerge northeast of the islands by tomorrow, which could ease the gradient over the archipelago, transitioning the trade winds down to a more moderate pace from Wednesday onwards. While the early part of next week might witness the return of brisker winds, the general trend points to gentler breezes and calmer seas.
Marine notifications are still in effect, particularly the Small Craft Advisory extended through tomorrow afternoon for specific areas around Maui and the Big Island. An uptick in south shore surf, courtesy of a south-southwest swell, is expected to fade out by midweek. Choppiness will continue to define the east-face shores until a subtle decline mirrors the weakening trades. Notably, North shores will get a negligible boost from a minor west-northwest swell projected to arrive by Wednesday.
On the fire weather front, West Maui and leeward Kohala are on alert as breezy conditions persist through tomorrow, coupled with low humidity that enhances risk. The upside is foreseen for Wednesday when winds are set to diminish, ushering a period of relative respite for leeward regions—though occasional showers could still graze windward counterparts. We anticipate seeing nighttime recovery in humidity at more humble elevations, but those residing in or near the inversion layer should brace for warmer, drier spells.
Boaters, take heed: the Small Craft Advisory remains valid up until 6 PM HST tomorrow for areas like Maalaea Bay, Pailolo and Alenuihaha Channels, along with the leeward and southeast waters off the Big Island. Staying informed and adhering to advisories is crucial as Hawaii continues to navigate another week of its signature trade wind season.
