Honolulu residents can expect moderate to breezy trade winds to continue blowing through Wednesday, thanks to a high pressure system anchored far north of the Hawaiian Islands. Detailed in the latest report from the National Weather Service - Honolulu, the forecast holds steady for the next few days before potential changes due to a cold front from Alaska and possible tropical cyclone activity near the end of the week.
A slight uptick in shower activity across the Hawaii region is anticipated from Sunday through Monday, as a weak disturbance makes its way from east to west through the state. This will manifest with a lift in the usual temperature inversion heights, according to information provided by the upper air balloon observations from Lihue and Hilo, which indicate ranges between 5,000 to 8,000 feet. This marginally unsettled pattern may wring out a few more showers, particularly in windward and mountain areas, though sunny skies are likely to prevail come mid-morning.
Looking ahead, we can expect a return to the more familiar pattern of moderate trade winds and stable weather from Tuesday onward. However, forecasters at the National Weather Service have advised keeping an eye on the horizon as later in the week could be influenced by tropical cyclone developments that are currently being suggested by long range model guidance. Both the American GFS and the European ECMWF models hint at potential cyclonic activity that could sway Hawaii's usually predictable weather patterns.
Navigating the skies over the islands might be a bit troublesome for aviators, with the National Weather Service issuing an AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration across several islands and AIRMET Tango for low level turbulence statewide. The marine outlook isn't free of advisories either, with a Small Craft Advisory in effect for certain waters around Maui County and the Big Island through Sunday afternoon, as moderate to strong trades persist. A south swell due Sunday night says surfers could enjoy a peak above the summer average by Monday before conditions mellow out midweek.
The full moon's effects paired with elevated water levels might cause minor coastal flooding through at least Monday, prompting authorities to issue a Coastal Flood Statement for all islands. As for offshore waters, the likelihood of thunderstorms increases from Sunday night through Monday night, tied to an area of increased moisture and instability.
