Honolulu is bracing for a gusty week ahead with trade winds expected to pick up, and weather-watchers are keeping an eye out for potential tropical cyclone formation that could impact Hawaii over the weekend. According to a forecast from the National Weather Service in Honolulu, the increase in wind speeds beginning Thursday may be a precursor to changed conditions due to tropical activity near the islands.
The satellite imagery has revealed bands of clouds on the approach, brought in by easterly trade winds; these might lead to mostly cloudy skies with periodic showers, particularly in windward and mountain areas, and leeward areas are expected to see sunshine with the odd shower here and there, the winds have been moderate but are set to gain strength from Thursday, which continues into the weekend although the exact weather scenario is hinged on the track that these potential cyclones might take as well as their intensity, and the models aren't exactly giving a clear picture apparently, which means there's less certainty in how the weather will pan out. There's a nod to one of the great challenges in meteorology: getting a handle on potential impacts before the system has fully developed.
Adding to the atmospheric narrative, "Our attention is focused on the potential track and evolution of two tropical disturbances near 10N latitude and 135W to 140W longitude," the NWS reported, noting the systems are currently situated more than a thousand miles east-southeast of the islands. While a tropical cyclone has not yet formed, the conditions are present for such an event, and how these disturbances interact will critically influence future forecasts.
For sea-goers, moderate to strong easterly trade winds continue through the day, which are forecasted to strengthen further across most waters as high pressure builds north of Hawaii, there's an active Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for certain areas around Maui County and Big Island until early Thursday morning and, which likely will be expanded, given the strengthening winds. A tropical depression or cyclone, potentially emerging in the eastern Pacific, could enter the Central Pacific near Thursday and find its trajectory set toward the Hawaiian Islands further complicating marine forecasts with its development, evolution, and chosen path seemingly up to the whims of nature.
For surf conditions, south-facing shores will reportedly experience surf around head high due to a peaking moderate size, long period south southwest swell, which is expected to decline thereafter. Former Typhoon Ampil is contributing to an uptrend in swell across north and west-facing shores, expected to peak in the next couple of days, and taper off by the weekend. Meanwhile, minor tidal flooding remains a possibility this afternoon due to unusually high water levels.
