The National Weather Service in Las Vegas has updated the local forecast, warning residents of potential thunderstorms fueled by monsoonal moisture across southern Nevada, northwest Arizona, and eastern San Bernardino County. According to NWS, these conditions are expected to persist through tomorrow, with an advisory already issued following heavy rain in northern Mohave County.
Above-normal temperatures are also on the docket as high pressure remains steadfast over the southwest. However, a shift is on the horizon with drier air expected to move into the region by Tuesday, heralding a decrease in storm potential, and bringing temperatures back down to more seasonable levels. The western half of the area, notably the Mojave Desert, Death Valley National Park, and Nye County will stay dry, hot, and breezy, with the south to southwest breezes intensifying.
As for the extended forecast through Saturday, a drying and cooling trend is anticipated thanks to increasing southwesterly flow aloft and developing trough across the West. This change signifies a brief respite from monsoonal patterns, confining moisture primarily to Northwest Arizona. The latter part of the week suggests a schism in forecast confidence, with ensemble models divided. Some suggest a rebuild of the monsoon high towards the Four Corners, potentially reintroducing moisture to eastern zones, while others maintain a drier scenario.
Aviation impacts seem minimal for Harry Reid airport outside of storm influences. "Expecting southerly breezes to persist through the TAF period," the NWS report advises, with potential for brief periods of convective activity. Meanwhile, the probability of storms and their resultant gusty outflows at other area TAF sites appears lower than previous periods, with a 20-30% chance of storms in the Las Vegas Valley and slightly less in the Colorado River Valley. Most sites, excluding storm activity, will experience persistent breezy south winds.
