The National Weather Service of Pittsburgh provided an update early this morning, anticipating a disturbance in the upper levels that could lead to showers and potential storms across the region later this afternoon. Following closely, a cold front is expected to traverse the area late Saturday, maintaining the unsettled weather conditions into the early part of next week.
According to the Area Forecast Discussion, Two shortwave troughs will cross the area today, bringing chances for showers and storms, mainly this afternoon when the probability increases. With temperatures persisting near the norm for this time of year, the weather seems to make a reluctant nod to the seasonal averages amidst the oncoming rain.
The atmosphere could potentially become more saturated, enhancing the likelihood of scattered showers and storms as the day progresses. However, the threat of severe weather remains uncertain due to insufficient instability and shear, as revealed by the National Weather Service's morning analysis. "The severe threat remains murky," the National Weather Service commented, noting the less-than-ideal conditions for storm intensification.
Looking ahead to the weekend forecast, an approaching cold front may up the ante on Saturday afternoon and evening, bringing a heightened possibility for strong to severe storms. Nevertheless, the details on this are not set in stone, with sway hold cloud cover still factoring into the equation. "The severe threat looks better on Saturday, but this is nowhere near a slam dunk," per the forecast discussion by the National Weather Service.
For aviation interests, sporadic showers and thunderstorms, along with potential visibility and ceiling reductions, could affect flights through early Monday. Pilots can expect more stable VFR conditions beginning Tuesday as the high pressure takes hold.
