Honolulu residents may need to prepare for more than just their weekend plans, as a tropical cyclone is set to potentially impact the area from late Friday, according to the National Weather Service - Honolulu. While the immediate forecast through Friday calls for stable and breezy trade winds with only brief showers mainly on windward areas in Hawaii, there's an increased consensus among models that a tropical cyclone, currently developing far east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands, could alter this tranquil scene dramatically.
The forecast suggests the weather will be largely dependent on the track and intensity of this nascent storm which, if it intensifies as expected, could pass dangerously close to the islands over the weekend, bringing with it a "triple threat" that includes damaging winds, heavy rainfall potentially leading to flooding, as well as high surf and storm surge, forecast uncertainty remains but the NWS advises that now is a good time to ensure preparedness plans are in place.
As the weather pattern shifts, aviation reports predict an uptick in trades today with the possibility of moderate low-level turbulence prompting an AIRMET Tango advisory downwind of the islands' terrain, the primary concerns until the tropical cyclone's impacts become clearer are momentary reduced visibility and ceilings due to shower activity in windward and upward areas.
Marine conditions are expected to toughen with the Small Craft Advisory already in effect through early tomorrow morning for select waters around Maui County and the Big Island – a posture that is set to expand as trades grow stronger, the high probability of a tropical depression or storm developing in the region means offshore conditions could rapidly become hazardous, with gales likely and seas projected to swell significantly as the potential tropical system approaches.
An element of certainty in the realm of Hawaii's marine forecasts is the swell from former Typhoon Ampil, which has already begun to show through at Hanalei and Waimea Bays, setting Kauai's north and west-facing shores up for near head-high waves, while Oahu anticipates similar conditions by this afternoon, the south swell that peaked earlier in the week will maintain its small presence before diminishing Thursday, adding to the complex and dynamic maritime forecast laid out in the advisory.
