Residents of the Hawaiian Islands can expect increasing wet conditions as forecasters at the National Weather Service in Honolulu track the approach of two tropical cyclones, Gilma and Hector, heading westward toward the state. The weather phenomena, currently east of Hawaii, are predicted to lose their strength over the coming days, bringing primarily wet weather rather than strong winds from Friday through Sunday. According to National Weather Service forecasts, "both tropical cyclones Gilma and Hector continue to weaken as they approach," meaning rainfall is the major concern for islanders.
Persistent high-pressure conditions to the north are steering the weakening tropical cyclones along a predictable westward path, and moderate to breezy trade winds will likely stick around through Thursday but might fluctuate as the cyclones draw nearer and the high pressure ridge north of the islands maintains its grip, a variable wind direction is expected to follow with an increase in traditional leeward sea breezes through the weekend. Despite the impending change in weather, surf conditions along east facing shores of Hawaii are on the rise as an easterly swell from Gilma starts to make its presence felt, the impact on marine conditions is less certain, variations in the track of the tropical storms could alter wind and wave activity significantly close to shore, as per National Weather Service.
Rainfall forecasts remain somewhat uncertain, mainly hinging on the paths taken by Gilma and Hector. Detailed in what amounts to a reprieve from the potential severity these storms might otherwise portend, "The good news for the Big Island is the rainfall totals from each of these systems will probably feel more like a wet trade wind weather with a only a slight risk for flash flooding," per National Weather Service discussion. Minor track shifts are all that separate the islands from receiving different amounts of rainfall, where a shift to the north might mean drier spells, while a southern detour could spell more abundant showers for residents.
In the realm of aviation, stable trade winds should persist, which may bring passing showers impacting mainly east and northeast facing coasts, boding well for travel, no AIRMETs are in effect and none are foreseen for the immediate future, this means that apart from brief drops to MVFR conditions, flights should operate with minimal weather-related disruption. As we turn the corner into next week, high pressure is expected to rebuild across the state, ushering a resurgence of breezy trade winds by Sunday night that look to gradually curb the rainfall, signaling a return to passing showers mainly during the twilight hours along windward and mountain slopes.
