As the high-pressure ridge hangs to the east and weather patterns twist over the region, the National Weather Service Las Vegas has issued their latest weather forecast, detailing a slight uptick in moisture that is set to bring increased precipitation chances to parts of the Mojave Desert. "A ridge of high pressure to our east and a weak shortwave trough negatively tilted along the Gulf of California has resulted in a south-southeasterly flow aloft," reported the National Weather Service Las Vegas. This flow is the conductor orchestrating a modest moisture march into northwestern Arizona and also parts of southeastern California and southern Nevada through Saturday. However, Mohave County retains the spotlight, holding onto those raining chances into next week.
Today's conditions will favor the development of thunderstorms, especially this afternoon and Saturday across Mohave County, with the National Weather Service noting a 30-60% chance of precipitation. The forecast, pulling curtain to nature's stage, hints at potential for strong gusty winds and dry lightning. There's a catch to this atmospheric performance as it could trigger flash floods or spark new fires, especially in the eastern regions of Mohave County where the storms may be more persistent or slow-moving. Despite the dry low levels and modest mid-level moisture, the area braces for what the sky might spill.
Heading into Sunday, a change is on the weather horizon. A shortwave will skim across northern California, pivoting the airflow, and consequently, drenching chances will thin out. The National Weather Service reflects on the upcoming days saying, "Despite modest PWATs remaining over much of the area, this change in flow combined with limited forcing and instability will limit precipitation potential and impacts on Sunday." In other words, those living in Mohave County might still need their umbrellas on standby, but the rest of us should see a reprieve from any major wet weather disruptions.
Further into the week, the spotlight turns towards climbing temperatures. As a shortwave makes an exit stage left to the Northern Plains, the aftereffects include breezy conditions for the southern Great Basin come Monday. The winds though not strong enough to warrant an alert right now, paired with low humidity could fan the flames of potential fire risk. By midweek, a high-pressure system takes center stage over the Southwest US, dialing down precipitation probabilities and cranking up the thermostat. "There is a high probability (80% or greater) for above normal high temperatures," the NWS anticipates, warning that the valley areas of San Bernardino, Mohave, Clark, and southern Nye counties need to prepare for the heat risks, with significant concerns for heat-related impacts.
Meanwhile, aviators' wings might catch more than a few drafts with the Las Vegas Valley not expecting convection today, though there's a slight chance storms could ripple through the higher terrain to the south and east. "While no convection is expected in the Las Vegas Valley today, there is a low (less than 20%) chance of an isolated storm," states the NWS, clearing the sky for VFR conditions apart from those potential isolated disturbances. As for other southern Nevada areas, northwest Arizona, and southeast California, the wind will apparently stick to its predictable routine, ensuring mostly smooth flights and clear horizons.
