Las Vegas residents and surrounding areas are bracing for a day of heightened wildfire risk coupled with gusty winds. According to the National Weather Service, "Breezy to locally windy conditions are expected today, leading to conditions favorable for fire spread." The advisory stresses caution as winds will only decrease in the evening, except for the Barstow area, which has prompted the issuance of a Wind Advisory due to longer duration threats.
In the forecast discussion by the National Weather Service, today's winds have been escalated by an incoming low-pressure system from the Pacific Northwest, which increases surface pressure gradients and upper-level thermal support. This phenomenon could not only exacerbate the spread of fires but also lead to downslope winds affecting the Owens Valley and westerly winds impacting through the Tehachapi Gap. Meanwhile, the Las Vegas Valley is eyeing a possible weather record, with the National Weather Service stating, "The question still remains: will KLAS reach 100F today and break the record for most 100F days in a year?" The odds are impacted by the "thick smoke in the sky," which may further deter the temperature from hitting the anticipated high.
The outlook for the rest of the week includes a dip in temperatures, as indicated by the NWS Las Vegas' Area Forecast Discussion. The region expects below-average temperatures due to back-to-back troughs of low pressure. As the midweek trough recedes, a zonal flow will follow ushering a relative calm and gradual temperature increase towards average September values.
Next week's weather presents an element of uncertainty with tropical moisture potentially entering the region. According to the National Weather Service, there's a "40% chance of cyclone formation in the next 48 hours" near Colima, Mexico. The question of moisture reaching the north is undecided, yet there's a noticeable indication of rising precipitation chances for parts of Mojave County coming Sunday and elsewhere on Monday, as the National Weather Service comments on the "associated increase in PWATs." However, the forecast for Las Vegas is less clear, with the ECMWF ensemble showing less enthusiasm for moisture as compared to earlier predictions.
Regarding aviation updates, the National Weather Service advises, "Southwest winds prevail through most of the TAF period," while gusts of 30-35 knots are expected near Harry Reid International Airport with the smoke layer presence. Similarly, across southern Nevada, northwest Arizona, and southeast California, gusty conditions are anticipated with winds mostly southerly to westerly. Pilots can expect skies mostly free of clouds, though the persistent smoke layer will remain a crucial consideration for visibility.
Fire weather alerts are in effect today with Red Flag Warnings for parts of Lincoln, Clark, and Mohave counties due to winds reaching 35 to 40 mph. Although winds are expected to die down in the evening, there is still a high fire risk during the day.
