Oahu's trade winds are sticking around with a bit more than the usual sprinkle for windward residents into the next week. A report from the National Weather Service in Honolulu indicates that showers will favor the windward areas, but the entire Big Island can expect a heavier dose tomorrow night into Monday. According to the NWS forecast, "Deeper moisture will move over the islands Sunday night and Monday, likely bringing increased shower coverage, especially over the Big Island, where some heavy showers may develop."
The source of these showers, as noted by a weather bulletin, is a low-level trough sitting hundreds of miles northwest of the islands. It's expected to dissolve over the weekend, ushering in a consolidation of surface high pressure along the 40N latitude, the mechanism for our brisk gusts. The forecast discussion depicts scattered showers ashore over windward areas and those hoping for a dry spell might find respite to be short-lived.
In terms of aviation, the trade winds are likely to cause some disturbances. "Moderate to locally breezy trades expected through the weekend," says the NWS latest update. The prediction also warns of "SHRA and low cigs with periods of MVFR conds should be focused over windward and mauka areas." An AIRMET Sierra remains in effect, noting mountain obscuration for parts of the Big Island.
Marine interests won't be left unscathed, as a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in place for the typically windier waters around Maui County and the Big Island through tomorrow night. "The SCA may eventually require an extension through the first half of next week," according to the NWS. Swells and surf conditions are also detailed, with a mix of east-facing chop and a small, long-period south-southwest swell expected to peak today before a gradual decline.
Locals living near the coast should be wary of higher than usual tides. "Water levels at local tide gauges are running over half a foot above predicted," the NWS advisory reports, explaining that this could lead to some nuisance coastal flooding through Monday around the peak high tide times each afternoon. A Coastal Flood Statement has been issued in light of these conditions.
