Stronger trade winds will continue across the Hawaiian Islands this week, with a potential decrease by the weekend. According to the latest updates from the National Weather Service in their morning forecast, showers are expected to persist, primarily in the windward areas, while the Big Island may experience afternoon showers over its leeward slopes.
The forecast has been adjusted, with Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) slightly lowered over the islands for the coming days. This change aligns with the National Blend of Models (NBM), which indicates lighter winds that may decrease by the weekend. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued, with details available in the Marine section of the National Weather Service website.
With the westward shift of a mid-level low and its associated thunderstorms, now positioned roughly 140 miles northwest of Kauai, the island atmosphere is forecasted to increasingly stabilize, meaning a downward trend can be expected in regards to shower activity. High clouds, however, are being ushered towards the northeast over the archipelago, with some of these high clouds projected to linger for a couple more days.
In aviation news, VFR conditions are anticipated to remain dominant, although MVFR conditions could easily arise in rainy areas. The coming days for mariners look to be influenced moderately to strongly by the trade winds, with the Small Craft Advisory in effect till Wednesday afternoon for waters around Maui County and the Big Island, as noted on the National Weather Service website.
On the surf side, a northwest swell is expected to raise northern shore surf above head height, with peak conditions likely tonight into Wednesday morning. Southern shores may experience long-period swells from the southwest towards the end of the month due to distant storms.
Regarding fire weather, KBDI values are around 626, prompting a slight alert for potential red flag conditions due to afternoon humidity dropping to the mid-40s and increasing winds. However, forecasts suggest higher relative humidity tomorrow, along with sustained breezy winds.
