The National Weather Service in Honolulu has updated the forecast for Hawai'i, predicting moderate easterly winds and passing showers to continue through Wednesday. In a statement obtained by SFist, the National Weather Service indicated a shift in weather patterns later in the week with, "Winds expected to weaken Thursday into the weekend, that will support afternoon sea breezes and overnight land breezes."
According to the National Weather Service, a convergence of model data has led to a downward adjustment of both precipitation probabilities and wind forecasts, with the latter anticipating lighter winds influenced by a mixture of the Global Forecast System (GFS) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) guidance. High pressure holds steady to the northeast, although a ridge north of the islands is beginning to show signs of disruption, which will likely result in a drop in trade wind strength during the second half of the week.
For aviation interests, the prevailing surface high-pressure ridge north of the state means continued moderate trade winds are in the cards. Pilots can expect periods of low clouds and showers, mainly over windward and mountain areas with brief periods of marginal visual flight rules conditions through the overnight to early morning hours, however, no AIRMETs are currently in effect.
On the marine front, the National Weather Service stated that high pressure to the northeast will sustain "moderate to locally fresh trades through Thursday." However, the trades are expected to ease into a lighter regime due to a weakening ridge. Looking ahead, a new high-pressure system could cause trades to pick back up by Sunday. Meanwhile, swells from the northwest are anticipated to build today, potentially bringing advisory-level surf to northern and western shores beginning Monday, meanwhile, south shores may see significant swell heights thanks to a long-period south-southwest swell over the weekend.
For now, no weather advisories or warnings have been issued, promising a relatively moderate week ahead for Hawaii's residents and visitors, punctuated by changing winds and potentially exciting conditions for surf enthusiasts.
