Bay Area residents can sigh relief as the National Weather Service in San Francisco has reported a decreased chance of thunderstorms for the upcoming Friday and Saturday. However, despite the subdued storm predictions, the forecast warns of the potential for locally heavy rainfall, which may lead to ponding on road surfaces and create hazardous driving conditions. According to their latest update, the National Weather Service advises locals to drive carefully, securing objects the wind could easily toss about.

As the season's first significant rainfall makes its way through the region, slick roads are expected due to the separation of oil and water, as noted by the Area Forecast Discussion. The National Weather Service reminds drivers "to have your headlights on if your windshield wipers are in use," emphasizing safety amid these wet conditions. While thunderstorms seem unlikely, the convergence of a low-pressure system and associated cold front from the north is set to douse the Bay Area with much-needed rain, temporarily dampening fire weather concerns.

Looking ahead to the long term, the forecast becomes bittersweet as a drying trend takes over from Sunday onwards. After the weekend's rainfall, a ridge building over the Eastern Pacific Ocean and troughing over the Great Plains is expected to lead to warmer temperatures and potentially problematic northerly/offshore winds. By midweek, uncertainty looms with the weather trajectory split between two scenarios, which entail cold overnight conditions and a weakening marine layer, according to the National Weather Service.

From an aviation perspective, VFR conditions are anticipated mostly throughout the day before the anticipated cold front triggers a shift in weather patterns and wind directions. Airports near San Francisco and Monterey Bay are preparing for a mix of MVFR ceilings and visibility-impairing rain showers as the front sweeps from north to south. 

Mariners are not exempt from this weather churn, with an advisory in place across multiple zones signaling moderate to fresh breezes and showers that could evolve into stronger gusts and rough seas post-frontal passage. Small Craft Advisories and Gale Watches emphasize the expected conditions through the weekend, signaling the need for heightened caution among those navigating Bay area waters. Up-to-date marine conditions can be found by checking the latest National Weather Service advisories.