The National Weather Service (NWS) in Cleveland forecasts a long weekend of lake-effect snow for the Great Lakes region. The agency said a broad upper-level low-pressure system will settle into the area, inducing onshore winds that will cause a prolonged snow event starting tonight and lasting through the weekend. The NWS has indicated that the heaviest snowfall is expected in the lake-effect-prone portions of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania.
A technical discussion by the National Weather Service detailed that after the low pressure exits the region, winds will begin to turn westerly around Lake Erie, with snow bands affecting areas east of Cleveland in eastern Cuyahoga County. Despite the initial snow being "on the inefficient side" with ratios down around 7:1, snow ratios are expected to climb to a more efficient 12-15:1 as temperatures drop. The NWS highlighted, though, a layer of complexity with the forecast, as winds gusting between 25-35 mph could reduce residence time of air parcels over the lake and thus, potentially reduce snow amounts. NWS warned that "fine tuning adjustments should continue to be expected in upcoming forecasts."
In the immediate term, the NWS Cleveland office has issued a Lake Effect Snow Warning for parts of the Ohio and Pennsylvania snow belt from midnight tonight through 10 AM EST Saturday. This warning foresees up to 18 inches of accumulations in the warned areas, representing a significant early-season event. According to the forecast, with a "sizable early season lake effect event," the snowfall dynamics within the region are on a mesoscale level. They can rapidly change, necessitating close monitoring and updates.
The NWS notes that "there will be potential for continued lake effect snow on Monday into Tuesday." Even as temperatures start to trend upward later in the week, new shortwaves are expected to move through the region, potentially bringing additional snowfall and requiring the consideration of further winter weather advisories. As the upper-level pattern becomes more progressive, Monday and Tuesday could see warning-level snow due to the thermodynamics made favorable for lake effect snow by around -10 C at 850 mb temperatures over a relatively warm lake.
As for impacts outside of the immediate lake-effect regions, travelers and residents are advised to prepare for potentially challenging driving conditions, with the potential for reduced visibility and snow-covered roads. The NWS advises keeping an eye on local forecasts and warnings, with updates over the aviation and marine sectors also anticipated as strong winds and heavy snow could impact transportation.
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