As the Hawaiian archipelago anticipates a mix of weather patterns, the National Weather Service in Honolulu offers a detailed outlook for the upcoming days. According to the National Weather Service, moderate trade winds that have been gracing the islands will persist today before starting to weaken this evening and into next week. Residents can expect relatively stable conditions, with passing low clouds and light showers, particularly hitting windward and mauka areas.
The currently dry and stable flow early this morning has been attributed to the high pressure system that's parked far to the north-northeast of the state. As winds are expected to gradually weaken following the approach of a weak front that will ultimately stall and dissipate northwest of Kauai, the best chance for rain will likely remain concentrated along the windward and mauka regions overnight and into the early morning hours. The forecast, which is consistent with the 12Z soundings taken from Lihue and Hilo, reveals the trade wind inversion situated at approximately 5000 ft, indicating that the developing showers should, for the most part, be light, as reported by the National Weather Service.
Heading into the latter part of the weekend, a shift towards lighter winds is anticipated, which will foster the development of localized sea breezes during the day and land breezes during nighttime starting Sunday. This pattern shift, as reported by the National Weather Service, is expected to direct clouds and showers over interior regions of the islands during the afternoon hours. By mid-next week, another, slightly stronger front is projected to approach the state, bringing with it an increase in rain chances.
With the weather dynamics in play, aviators should take heed of continued moderate trades through today, same is predicted to weaken as we progress into next week. A band of moisture transported by these winds could instigate SHRA and low ceiling conditions in windward and mauka locales, with marginal VFR conditions in shower activity otherwise remaining prevalent, as per the National Weather Service.
Mariners are also cautioned as the trade wind speeds have diminished to gentle to fresh levels because of an incoming front that's expected to fizzle out to northwest of the coastal waters. This is forecasted to trigger a shift in the winds to the southeast by Sunday. A sizable northwest swell, captured by the NDBC offshore buoy 51101, heralds a significant surge in surf along the north and west facing shores, peaking this evening. In response, the National Weather Service has issued a High Surf Warning and expects potentially hazardous conditions including the possible overtopping of coastal roadways and wave runup to coastal properties.
Finally, various HFO Watches, Warnings, and Advisories have been declared, including a High Surf Warning in effect until noon HST Saturday for several locations and a Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for specific surrounding waters. For a full account of the advisories and to stay informed on the latest updates, be sure to visit the National Weather Service website.
