The Hawaiian Islands are gearing up for a shift in weather as the National Weather Service's Honolulu office forecasts a weakening of the trade winds today, paving the way for light and variable winds starting from Sunday into the early part of next week. This change in wind patterns is expected to accompany stable weather conditions characterized by passing low clouds and the possibility of light showers during afternoon hours.
According to reports, the islands have seen high-level cirrus clouds flowing from the west due to a subtropical jet stream in the upper atmosphere, despite these high-level clouds, the lower cloud layers remain fairly stable as of this morning's satellite imagery, and such conditions are anticipated to keep shower activities to a minimum, mainly around mountainous and interior regions of the islands each afternoon through the weekend. Notably, as the subtropical ridge axis holds its ground over the islands, expect a marginal increase in showers during the first half of the week, occurring mainly in the afternoons as a result of onshore sea breezes. A weak cold front moving into the region could bring more rain from Thursday into Friday and potentially stall over some parts of the islands.
Aviation-wise, the light to moderate trades are also expected to weaken, leading to more land and sea breezes locally, while mariners should anticipate a gentle south to southeast wind set in by Sunday. The National Weather Service has also issued warnings for an extra-large northwest swell that could continue to affect north and west-facing coastlines, keeping a High Surf Warning in effect through today but the surf is estimated to fall below advisory thresholds by Sunday.
The National Weather Service has clarified that critical fire weather conditions remain unlikely through the beginning of next week given the wind’s current speed staying below alarming levels even though low humidity may pose brief concerns over drier leeward locations into the week, as the weekend progresses a different concern rears its head as residents are reminded of a High Surf Warning until 6 PM HST this evening for multiple areas including Niihau, Kauai Leeward, and the Kona region, as well as a Small Craft Advisory for most Hawaiian waters persisting through the evening for seas above 10 ft which is expected to gradually decline into next week as we witness a gradual transition to more moderate sea conditions.
