The National Weather Service in Cleveland has updated the forecast to account for a heavy band of lake-effect snow currently impacting parts of northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania. According to their Area Forecast Discussion, travelers are advised to limit travel if possible as the area continues to face winter weather advisories and lake-effect snow warnings into the weekend.
Early snowfall totals have already reached significant levels, with reports showing 10.5 inches near Jefferson in Ashtabula County and 4 inches near Harborcreek in Erie County, PA. The snow is part of a system expected to continue to produce heavy snowfall across the snowbelt, and model trends suggest that the total quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) through Saturday could range from 1.5 to 2 inches. There's also a chance "to slightly adjust the expected snowfall totals, should the conditions warrant," per the NWS.
With the snow system comes winds gusting up to 35-40 mph, contributing to potential whiteout conditions. The NWS warns of "snowfall rates of 1-2"/hr, with the highest rates expected this afternoon," and areas of blowing and drifting snow. Lake and Ashtabula Counties, along with Erie, PA, are expected to see the heaviest accumulation, possibly nearing 28 inches in some areas, while further south and west, the totals taper off. Cuyahoga County's far eastern regions may see between 4 and 6 inches.
The NWS's discussion indicates a late Friday into Saturday timeframe for a wind shift across Lake Erie, potentially impacting the intensity and location of the snow bands. The guidance suggests that "to early shift the band north over the lake" might be the outcome. However, the latest high-resolution models forecast a slower backing of the winds, keeping heavier snow over Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania longer than anticipated. This could translate to additional accumulations if the winds don't shift as quickly.
The airport terminals in the region, particularly KERI in Erie, PA, are being heavily impacted, with conditions that have dropped visibilities to a quarter mile and ceilings as low as 400 feet. According to aviators, west winds of 8-12 knots with gusts up to 25 knots on Friday morning will increase throughout the afternoon to between 15-20 knots with gusts reaching 25-30 knots. The Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for Lake Erie's waters, warning of conditions unsafe for smaller vessels.
Looking beyond the weekend, the NWS anticipates the Mighty Lake effect snow to extend into the early part of the week, with additional accumulations likely. The situation remains fluid, and ongoing warnings and advisories may be reevaluated and extended if necessary. Nighttime temperatures are set to drop into the teens, with wind chill values that could sometimes reach single digits. Residents and travelers in affected areas are urged to stay updated on the latest forecast developments and take necessary precautions.
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