Pittsburgh is riding a wave of record-breaking warmth today, and it doesn't seem ready to cool down just yet. According to the National Weather Service in Pittsburgh, PA, climate sites might tie or break past high-temperature records due to a persistent eastern CONUS ridge parked just east of the region. The forecast discussion notes that a "brief period of warm air advection" will continue pushing highs well above the norms. So, don't be too surprised if your car's thermometer reads a high that looks more like summer than fall.
The region's not just heating up—gusty winds are also on today's weather menu, peaking the fire watch levels a notch or two. Surface dewpoints shall go up, holding RH values high and theoretically keeping fire weather in check, but don't let that make you complacent. The National Weather Service warned that "with such dry conditions and lots of dead fuels available, a fire will spread quickly." So maybe hold off on that backyard bonfire for a better day.
Don't get too used to the warm spell, though. A cold front is set to roll through on Wednesday, likely in the evening, bringing the chance of much-needed showers. However, the anticipated rainfall appears to be lighter, with the National Weather Service noting probabilities for more than 0.10 inches of precipitation landing between 30 and 50% Wednesday morning and lessening as the day progresses. Temperatures will dip, but they're holding on to their above-normal stance like a stubborn leaf clinging to a near-bare tree branch.
Looking ahead, Thursday's weather plot shifts as another ridge builds slowly over the Upper Ohio Valley. While there may still be a lingering shower Thursday morning, particularly over northern WV, clearing skies and cooler, albeit still above-average, temperatures are on the agenda. But forecasting beyond Thursday gets tricky, with ensemble analyses showing conflicting signals regarding the depth and movement of a western trough—that could spell an extended period of warmth and dry conditions, or it could usher in an early return to winter chills and wet weather. Either way, the forecast hinges on a low-confidence pattern, leaving meteorologists and the rest of us in a holding pattern awaiting clarity.
Aviation-wise, it's a VFR—visual flight rules—kind of day thanks to that persistent high-pressure ridge, which means smooth sailing mostly at local airports. A snippet of LLWS—low-level wind shear—is anticipated tonight, mainly for spots north of ZZV through AGC to LBE. Flight crews will monitor the change-up as winds get ready to gust upwards of 20 knots.
