Honolulu residents can anticipate a change in the weather pattern as northerly winds shift to the northeast today, bringing brief showers mainly to the north and windward slopes, according to the National Weather Service. The National Weather Service forecasts that while winds are set to strengthen from Thursday into Saturday with a slight shift towards an easterly trade wind direction, this will introduce more clouds and passing showers during the late night to early morning hours predominantly over windward and mountain areas; however, the overarching dry and stable conditions are expected to persist into the weekend.
The return of moderate trade winds is characterized by an incoming surface trough spotted on this morning's satellite imagery around 3:30 AM HST, which is projected to enhance wind speeds to around 15 to 20 mph as it progresses over the islands, the National Weather Service also anticipates cooling temperatures statewide below normal levels overnight to early morning through Thursday due the dual effect of dry weather and strong subsidence aloft maintaining inversion heights at 4,000 to 5,000 feet "through tonight, and then around the 5,000 to 7,000 foot range thereafter," as detailed in a National Weather Service report. Humidity levels will experience a modest rise as the week progresses owing to the slight trade wind adjustment.
Next week's transition to lighter winds, influenced by land and sea breezes, is expected to coincide with weakening high pressure due to an incoming cold front, which might increase chances of rainfall, particularly by next Thursday as a weakening cold front stalls between Kauai and Oahu, the National Weather Service states. This could result in more widespread rain primarily concentrated along the frontal zone with uncertainties remaining regarding its impact further down the island chain.
In the realm of aviation, the light north-northeast winds will persist, enabling localized sea breezes and land breezes to develop in sheltered locales with the shower activity expected to be minimal this afternoon the marine forecast indicates that, starting today, the light to moderate north to northeast winds will undergo a gradual shift and strengthen somewhat through the latter half of the week these winds may subsequently ease by next weekend in response to a potential front passing to the north, the National Weather Service informs. Surfers should be on the alert as the seas could potentially exceed the 10 ft Small Craft Advisory level by the end of the week due to large west-northwest swells.
Regarding fire weather concerns, the low wind speeds anticipated for the coming week suggest that critical fire weather conditions are unlikely to develop, albeit dry relative humidity levels may briefly touch fire weather criteria over the drier leeward zones, according to the National Weather Service forecast. As of now, there are no active watches, warnings, or advisories in effect from the HFO.
