Baltimore is bracing itself for a cocktail of dry, chilly weather, and the potential for some icy travel conditions. As announced by the National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC, strong Canadian high pressure is taking the reins today, bringing dry and frosty air. Today's high? Don't expect the mercury to rise above the 30s, and even colder along the Maryland/Pennsylvania border and in the mountains. If you're hitting the road, keep your eyes peeled as clouds mushroom this afternoon, ahead of a weak front that's creeping up, bringing a chance of wintry dressing Tuesday.
Speaking of Tuesday, we could be looking at freezing precipitation encroaching upon our doorstep. The high-res forecast models are seeing things a bit differently than their global counterparts, suggesting a slick mix that isn't fully captured by the standard set. The National Weather Service cautions, “Given the preceding days have been very cold, and ambient temps will be in the 20s come Tuesday morning, any freezing precip is expected to stick once it hits the ground." In short, surfaces could turn into skating rinks. The Weather Service has already issued Winter Weather Advisories for several regions, including parts of the Alleghenies, and areas along and north of I-66/US-50 in Northern VA, eastern WV panhandle into Maryland. As conditions evolve, additional advisories may be in play, so stay tuned.
Throughout Tuesday, we're eyeing a transition from icy rain to plain cold rain east of the mountains while temperatures thaw out to the 40s, but still hug freezing in the higher altitudes. Tuesday night promises a reprieve with dry weather, and Wednesday looks similarly calm but cloudy. There's a mid-level trough from the TN Valley eyeing the region Wednesday night into Thursday.
The latter part of the week is expected to trend towards cooler conditions, with high pressure serving as a stabilizing yet chilly influence on Thursday and Friday. This is likely to result in increased cloud cover on Thursday, while Friday may provide intermittent periods of sunshine. By the weekend, a more unsettled weather pattern is anticipated, driven by multiple shortwave disturbances approaching from the west. These disturbances could introduce precipitation as early as Saturday. Additionally, a developing low-pressure system over the Great Lakes region may lead to widespread rainfall across the area on Sunday, warranting close observation.
Regarding aviation conditions, Visual Flight Rules (VFR) are expected to prevail through this evening, ensuring favorable flying conditions. However, by Tuesday morning, potential complications may arise, with forecasts indicating the possibility of mixed precipitation, including rain and freezing rain, at airports such as MRB, IAD, DCA, BWI, and MTN.
For mariners, calm waters are anticipated through midweek, except for possible southerly channeling winds reaching speeds of 15-20 knots this evening. As of now, the National Weather Service has not issued any Small Craft Advisories. Towards the end of the workweek, light northerly to northeasterly breezes are forecasted, supporting continued smooth sailing as the region transitions into the holiday season and the onset of winter.
