The National Weather Service San Francisco has issued a forecast alerting Bay Area residents that those hoping for winter-like weather to commence with the calendar's turn to December will be left waiting. According to their latest report, warm and dry conditions will stay through at least the first week of December.
Today and tonight, temperatures will soar up to 15 degrees above average, thanks to the high pressure that continues to assert itself along the West Coast. The curious radar sightings northward tracking out of San Luis Obispo County, which could suggest incoming moisture, are quickly debunked by surface dew point depressions, keeping the actual rain at bay and awarding us, instead, a virga and potentially a colorful sunrise. In a nod to climate buffs, Monterey Airport, though not a long-standing official climate site, managed a record daily maximum of 70 degrees on November 30th, casually eclipsing former records from 2008 and 2021 by a single degree.
Long-term predictions offer up more of the same. "High confidence in ridging dominating the pattern at least through the first week of December," says the NWS San Francisco statement, indicating persistently above-average temperatures and ongoing dryness. As if acting in defiance of the season's traditional offerings, this ridge ensures that the winter cold will have to fight harder to make its presence known in the Bay Area.
Aviation reports have visual flight rules (VFR) conditions set to persist through the region's forecast period. There is a chance for some low stratus or fog at Santa Rosa's Charles M. Schulz–Sonoma County Airport (KSTS) come sunrise. As for the iconic San Francisco International Airport (SFO), expect clear skies with gentle easterly winds. At the same time, Monterey Bay Terminals are predicted to enjoy similar conditions with whispers of E/ESE winds, according to the National Weather Service's aviation outlook.
Mariners should note that the NWS San Francisco's latest marine forecast predicts much of the same calm we've seen ashore. Light to moderate northerly winds and gentle seas will persist across the Bay's outer and coastal waters well into the workweek. Swells of a longer period, expected to roll in early this week, could offer the only noteworthy disruption to this otherwise tranquil maritime scene.
