The National Weather Service in Cleveland has issued an area forecast discussion detailing weather conditions through the end of the week for Northern Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania, with expectations of a ridge build today before a cold front sweeps through on Wednesday, a brief period of lake effect snow, and below-normal temperatures to come for the weekend.
According to the latest National Weather Service Cleveland forecast, temperatures today are expected to reach the lower to mid-40s. However, "the daytime warming will be limited via lingering low-level CAA behind the recent cold front passage." A surface low is predicted to develop south of the cold front, with precipitation possibly beginning as light snow or freezing rain mix before quickly transitioning to plain rain. However, forecast confidence at this stage is low considering various variables that could result in precip starting as plain rain due to warm air advection.
By Wednesday, precipitation in most forms of rain is expected due to moist isentropic ascent and frontogenetical convergence associated with the trough axis aloft despite an onset that may include a brief period of light snow or freezing rain in the Northeast of Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania, on Wednesday the prevailing precipitation will be rain but "a very brief period of light snow/freezing rain may impact interior portions of NE OH and NW PA shortly after daybreak before the WAA above allows the low-level atmospheric column to be moderate enough for precip type to become plain rain," as per the National Weather Service.
Conditions for aviators will be challenging with "periodic MVFR ceilings expected through the TAF period, especially over and near Lake Erie." However, precip may hold off at TAF sites until after the early hours of Wednesday, which could start as a mix before turning to mostly rain due to higher surface and aloft temperatures expected, as the forecast discussion explains. Meanwhile, marine conditions will see "Small Craft Advisories remain in effect east of the Islands due to west/southwest winds to 15 to 30 knots over the lake" with winds anticipated to diminish gradually through early this evening. However, winds on the lake are expected to rise again Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
Looking ahead to the weekend, a colder air mass will settle in the area, bringing well below normal temperatures in the 20s for highs and teens for lows, with a dry weather outlook favored from Sunday into Monday, although the potential for periodic lake effect snow showers will persist on Saturday; this according to the long-term outlook from the National Weather Service, suggesting conditions will be favorable for periodic lake effect snow showers Saturday with precipitation chances likely dwindling as early as Saturday night into Sunday as surface high pressure builds in from the northwest.
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