As the last weekend before Christmas is upon us, the residents of Orlando face a mixed bag of weather conditions. According to the National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL, the chill of the early morning is expected to give way to a gradual warming through the week. However, it appears showers will be making an occasional appearance.
Alongside the forecast of warmer days, there's a low but non-zero chance for locally heavy rainfall later this afternoon into tonight. Boating conditions off the Atlantic coast look less than ideal, with advisories indicating marginal at best scenarios close to shore and hazardous conditions continuing through mid-week.
Northwesterly flows have shaped the morning weather patterns, with winds possibly shifting onshore around sunrise along the barrier islands, offering a subtle warm-up. However, the rest of Orlando woke up to another refreshingly crisp start, with some areas experiencing temperatures in the low 40s and a persistent breeze pushing wind chills down even further.
The weather narrative for today into tonight centers around an inverted surface trough that may push toward the East Coast, bringing uncertainties about rainfall totals. The range of forecast models spans from a mere 0.50 in the very pessimistic HRRR to staggering amounts up to 4 inches, as seen in the very excited NAM 3km. However, the consensus leans toward less than 0.50 of rain for most areas, despite the Weather Prediction Center signaling a slim chance for excessive rainfall along the Space Coast.
Looking ahead to next week and into the Christmas holiday, the large picture remains relatively unchanged, with high-pressure and low-pressure systems to the north influencing Florida's weather. The previous wet forecast has been revised, with the development of a trough that could lower rain chances, particularly on Monday. That said, a sufficiently deep marine layer could mean isolated to scattered showers persist through Christmas Day.
Boaters are urged to exercise caution as the marine forecast predicts several days of less-than-ideal conditions. With winds from the northeast reaching up to 20 knots today and potentially over 15 knots into Tuesday, advisories have been put in place for various coastal zones. Mariners must remain vigilant while these conditions are expected to improve by mid-week.
Finally, for those traveling by air, the aviation forecast indicates that mainly VFR conditions are forecast through 21Z, with occasional MVFR ceilings for coastal routes post-sunset. Wind conditions are also expected to pick up later in the day, resulting in gusts that could affect flight operations.
