Pittsburgh residents can enjoy a short respite from winter weather. The National Weather Service predicts a dry day with near-normal temperatures for the region today. Sunny conditions will prevail over the southern half of the region due to minor upper-level height rises and a surface high moving toward the Mid-Atlantic. These will keep lower clouds at bay, particularly north of I-80.
However, the dry and relatively warm trend is expected to be short-lived. According to the National Weather Service, rain is forecast to return on Wednesday, and temperature dips will occur for the latter part of the week. Today, gusty surface winds will also be a factor, with probabilities of wind gusts exceeding 25 mph across the region. In Tucker County, WV, the chances of gusts topping 40 mph are between 60% and 80%.
Looking ahead to midweek, the weather system moving in on Wednesday involves a deepening trough and a weak surface that is low and poised to spread rain across the Upper Ohio River Valley. While forecasting models vary slightly in their depiction of the trough's depth and speed, the likelihood of snow accumulation seems low due to relatively warm temperatures at 850mb levels. This, in turn, reduces concerns about freezing rain.
The National Weather Service also notes that Thursday, after Wednesday's rainy front, should bring a return to drier weather under high-pressure influence. However, the weekend doesn't seem as promising, with temperatures expected to drop around 10 degrees below normal. Snowfall could become a "low-end threat," especially near Lake Erie, depending on developing a new upper-level trough slated to venture from central Canada.
Aviation forecasts are generally optimistic today, with VFR conditions anticipated through the TAF period, thanks to the impact of the aforementioned surface high pressure. Nevertheless, widespread rain and restrictions will likely peak around 15z to 20z by Wednesday. Even as the chance of persistent MVFR ceilings looms large from ensemble models, there's hope for VFR before the weekend's weather system sets in.
