As Pittsburgh prepares for an oncoming weather ordeal, the National Weather Service has issued a forecast that spells out a particularly wintry mix for the region. A low-pressure system tracking up the Ohio River Valley will bring showers and potential thunderstorms today, followed by snow late tonight through Wednesday night. This shift to colder weather will remain firm through early next week.
Today's weather disturbances come from a low-pressure center moving across the Ohio Valley; the 850MB low is progged to track through central IN and into NE OH through the coming day, according to the National Weather Service. Pittsburghers can anticipate a period of showers, with an 80% chance of freezing temperatures north of Butler, although warmer air from the incoming storm is expected to moderate the chill somewhat. The service warns of a "marginal destabilization" in the afternoon, with the potential for strong storm activity over the southern forecast area.
The situation escalates as evening closes in, transitioning the rain to snowfall, which will blanket Wednesday into the night. A Winter Storm Warning has been flagged for the West Virginia Ridges—impacted areas could grapple with gusts reaching 50 mph and sizable snow accumulation. The forecast discussion explained that the probabilities from the NBM highlight just above 80% for warning criteria in the WV ridges, and the HREF suggests near 90%, thus giving substantial confidence to go warning.
Dipping temperatures throughout the latter half of the week come as no surprise, given the concurrence of influential weather patterns. MJO is in phase 7 and moving into phase 8, a cold signal for our area, as shown in the weather bulletin notes. The result is a pattern favoring below-normal temperatures and increased snow activity due to a shift expected around Friday, likely turning flow more northwesterly for another layer of lake-effect snow. Saturday is forecasted to be brisk, with temperatures around 10F below the norm.
Aviation operations, too, may face turbulence. The forecast predicts an approaching low-pressure system pulling a warm front across the region today, undermining visibility to MVFR or possibly even IFR in heavier rain. After a warm front passage, showers—occasionally mixed with thunderstorms—are expected to roll through, with potential gusty conditions, especially in areas south of Pittsburgh International Airport (PIT).
As for warnings and advisories, Pennsylvania and Ohio have been spared for now. However, West Virginia braces itself for a more severe weather spell by issuing a Winter Storm Warning from 1 AM Wednesday to 4 AM EST Thursday, pertinent for a swathe of counties, including Preston and Tucker.
