Residents on the Big Island should gear up for a wet day, with the National Weather Service (NWS) in Honolulu warning of heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms this morning. According to NWS, an increase in moisture, along with an upper disturbance moving over the island, is causing the impending downpour. Windward and southeastern areas are expected to experience the heaviest rainfall.
Despite the gloomy forecast this morning, the rest of Hawaii can expect some relief, as trade wind conditions are likely to keep the weather relatively normal—at least through midweek. The typical pattern will bring clouds and showers, mainly affecting windward and mauka areas. Those at higher elevations may see a brief wintry mix, though the chances remain low.
Uncertainty kicks in later in the week, with weather models in disagreement and confidence waning, as stated by the NWS. The trade winds are likely to be disrupted, with another cold front on the approach. This could potentially yield more rainfall and the chance of thunderstorms. In the meantime, aviation conditions will see a reduction in winds and possible MVFR conditions in areas with recurring showers, predominantly over windward and mauka locations.
A fluctuating marine forecast anticipates moderate to fresh trade winds easing tonight, aligning with a passed northern front. An AIRMET Sierra persists for mountain obscuration within windward sections of all islands. The surf scene faces a similar state of fluctuation, as a moderate northwest swell, previously expected, has hit a delay. The anticipated High Surf Advisory has therefore been pushed to commence at noon, covering shores across numerous islands.
Fire weather concerns are not expected during this period, providing a contrast to the cloudy forecast. Coastal areas and surf enthusiasts may see an off-season south swell by the weekend, potentially increasing wave activity along the south shore.
The High Surf Advisory remains in effect, with detailed timings and affected areas relayed by the NWS. The complete forecast and advisory details are available on the NWS's official forecast page.
