According to the latest update from the National Weather Service in Honolulu, residents of Oahu to Maui County experienced heavy rainfall this morning, with an expected downtrend throughout the day. The forecast points to an improvement in weather conditions, hinting at a gradual return to fair weather later today and into the weekend. However, lingering showery trade wind conditions could persist around Big Island and east Maui, primarily during daybreak and overnight hours.
The weather update highlights an upper-level trough axis positioned over the eastern part of the state, under which areas to the east have seen thunderstorms shift southward through the evening. Oahu, Maui County, and perhaps the Big Island could be affected as heavy showers with rainfall rates between 2 to 4 inches per hour may trigger flood warnings if they persist; the severe weather threat remains particularly acute for Maui County, as stated in the NWS forecast.
As we move through the day, the expected stabilizing weather west of this trough will leave a mark—strong tradewinds ushering in showers primarily over windward and mauka areas, though some heavier showers could nourish the kona slopes of the Big Island this afternoon with a slight chance for thunderstorms. The NWS further details that the trough axis will stretch and shift over the Big Island, likely bringing enhanced tradewind showers into the weekend's forecast.
Looking ahead to next week, a shift in the upper-level low toward the east, along with the development of an upper-level ridge, is expected to bring more stable and drier conditions across the state. While a slight weakening of the trade winds may occur as a front passes to the north, moderate trade winds are likely to return by Tuesday, with indications of a strong front approaching later in the week. For sailors and water enthusiasts, the marine forecast calls for moderate to strong trade winds through the weekend, along with a decreasing northwestern swell. Advisories will remain in effect until 6 p.m. Friday for most marine zones and until 6 p.m. Saturday for the windier waters near Maui and the Big Island, as reported by the NWS.
