While Sacramento residents enjoy a break from wet weather, the National Weather Service (NWS) has flagged a change coming later this week. According to the National Weather Service forecast, the area will maintain dry conditions and cold mornings through tomorrow, with local frost and potential isolated fog patches expected earlier today.
The shift towards unsettled weather is set to begin on Friday, courtesy of an upper-level trough incoming from a parent low in the Gulf of Alaska. "Precipitation chances will begin Friday morning in the far north and northwestern sections of the warning area, before spreading south later in the day," National Weather Service stated, citing the substantial moisture plume responsible for what could be a significant bout of rain primarily north of Interstate 80. Snow levels are expected to start at around 5000 feet on Friday, climbing to over 7500 feet on Saturday, limiting snow impacts to higher elevations.
Into next week, ensemble forecasts predict the trough will continue to impact Northern California's weather pattern. "Recent ensemble runs have brought the trough slightly further south, which has led to an increase in potential snow totals for the northern Sierra, southern Cascades, and the mountains of Shasta County," the National Weather Service forecast explains, highlighting a potential uptick in rain reaching possibly even the central valley regions like Modesto.
Snow levels are projected to fluctuate, starting around 7000 feet on Sunday before descending to the 5000-foot range by Wednesday. The likelihood of 2 inches of rain or more hitting the northern Sacramento Valley and adjacent regions Sunday through Wednesday morning is currently pegged by the NBM between 50-80%, with snow probabilities for the high country standing at 40-60% for accumulations surpassing 8 inches. Forecast models indicate southerly winds will blow through, contributing further to the incoming unsettled conditions.
For aviation interests, the NWS has projected mostly VFR conditions across the Central Valley, with the possibility of localized MVFR/IFR situations due to overnight and early morning fog and frost. Light surface winds are anticipated to be the norm, save for stronger northeastern gusts in the Northeastern foothills and mountains. For the most up-to-date information, the forecast advises remaining vigilant to the latest releases at weather.gov and through NWS social media updates.
