Honolulu residents and visitors are expected to experience a wet and showery weather pattern through Friday. The National Weather Service (NWS) in Honolulu reports that a weakening front over the Kauai Channel is currently causing showers, primarily affecting Oahu. An upper disturbance moving across the state is also increasing the likelihood of rainfall, with the potential for thunderstorms.
Recent weather developments follow significant rainfall, with Oahu receiving 1 to 2 inches and Kauai recording between 0.20 to 0.75 inches over the past 24 hours. Showers on Oahu are expected to shift toward windward and mauka areas as trade winds strengthen through the early part of next week. The return of these northeastern winds is expected to change both the direction and intensity of the rainfall. "Some elevated stream response is possible, especially for Kauai and Oahu as this boundary shifts from Oahu to Kauai, which may initiate a flood advisory or two," the NWS reported.
The forecast shows that the weakening front will continue to dissipate through the morning, shifting westward as a high-pressure system moves in from the north. This will lead to the return of moderate to locally strong trade winds, expected to persist through the weekend. However, the combination of increased moisture and upper-level instability may increase the risk of thunderstorms and heavy showers in the short term.
The aviation sector is on alert, as flights around the western islands may face challenges due to current weather conditions. MVFR (Marginal Visual Flight Rules) conditions have been observed in these areas, primarily due to a persistent cloud band over Oahu. The National Weather Service (NWS) has indicated that inclement weather, including heavy showers and the potential for thunderstorms, may continue through tonight. At sea, mariners are experiencing fresh to strong northeastern trade winds, particularly around Kauai, where a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been issued for all windward waters through early Friday.
Hawaii's surf conditions are being closely monitored, with a High Surf Warning in effect until 6 p.m. HST this evening for several shorelines. While the large northwest swell that peaked will gradually diminish into the weekend, advisory-level waves are expected to persist for a bit longer. A new long-period northwest swell is forecast to arrive over the weekend, potentially enhancing surf conditions without exceeding advisory levels.
As the week’s weather concludes, firefighters on the islands can expect some relief. The NWS has indicated that no critical fire weather conditions are anticipated in the coming days, as the expected rainfall is likely to help reduce the risk of fires across the region.
