The National Weather Service in Honolulu has released a weather forecast that predicts light to moderate east to east-southeast trade winds will continue through the week, setting up a mix of windward showers and leeward sea breezes. Despite a forecasted cold front passing to the north over the coming weekend, Hawaiians can expect relatively mild weather conditions with limited rainfall.
According to the NWS report, the smaller islands are already seeing isolated showers this morning, which are expected to persist with little expected rainfall accumulation. Windward areas, primarily on the Big Island, will continue to receive clouds and a few showers, moving in on the east-southeasterly trade winds. Furthermore, areas leeward of Oahu may experience additional showers and cloud coverage due to island plumes—a phenomenon that occurs when winds converge downstream from island terrain.
Looking ahead, the weekend weather should bring lighter southeast winds across the state as a weak cold front moves in from the north. This will promote more land and sea breezes, meaning overnight clearing and afternoon cloud buildups with the occasional light shower across leeward and interior regions. The forecast for early next week is less certain, as models show discrepancies on a new front approaching from the northwest, potentially increasing rainfall across the western parts of the state.
The aviation sector should experience generally favorable conditions with light to moderate east-southeast trade winds. These conditions will likely maintain windward and mauka low clouds and showers, with the potential for marginal visual flight rules (MVFR) conditions. However, the majority of flight paths will fall under visual flight rules (VFR), with no AIRMETs currently in effect.
Mariners are also affected by the weather, with a high-pressure ridge prompting a Small Craft Advisory in place for certain waters around Maui County and The Big Island. This Advisory acknowledges the breezy easterly winds forecasted for these regions. Additionally, a large west-northwest swell is impacting local waters today, necessitating a High Surf Advisory along exposed north and west-facing beaches, which is expected to remain in effect until this evening. Swell-related conditions are projected to subside slightly overnight before potentially increasing again on Thursday.
