As Pittsburgh residents start their day with relatively dry and calm conditions, a more complicated weather scenario lies on the horizon. According to an update from the National Weather Service, while today's forecast promises high pressure and seasonable weather, things are set to change as we head into the remainder of the week. Pittsburghers should expect a shift with multiple opportunities for wintry weather, beginning Tuesday and stretching into Wednesday evening.
The near-term comforts of high pressure will soon give way to an unsettled pattern, marked by several disturbances that could bring an impactful accumulation of snow, particularly to the West Virginia ridges between Tuesday and Wednesday. "High clouds begin to filter into the region overnight ahead of our next low pressure system,” the National Weather Service Pittsburgh explained, signifying the start of an active pattern that could see a wintry mix of precipitation by late Wednesday.
Looking at the short-term forecasts, southwestern flow is expected to inject increased moisture into the area on Tuesday, compounded by inverted troughing and coastal low development on Tuesday night. This setup may push a northward snow shield across our region, mainly Tuesday through Wednesday. The National Weather Service cautions that "Temperature profiles still indicate that this should be a mostly snow event" with potential periods of warmer air intrusion near the West Virginia/Pennsylvania border.
While confidence isn't quite solid enough to upgrade to warnings, Winter Storm Watches have been issued for parts of West Virginia from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning. Given the slight southward shift in snow totals, the ridge accumulations remain a concern, according to forecasts, 6 inch probabilities max out in eastern Tucker County at 60%, with 30% values stretching slightly west to western Tucker/eastern Preston. Residents in these areas are advised to remain alert to weather developments as the situation evolves.
The potential for mixed precipitation continues into Thursday, with another weather system expected Wednesday night. This system could cause additional precipitation-type concerns, with areas north of Pittsburgh possibly facing sleet or freezing rain transitions. By next weekend, a continued weather pattern could bring another surge of mixed precipitation into the area. Aviators should be mindful of multiple rounds of precipitation and possible associated restrictions, particularly southeast of the Pittsburgh terminal, where higher snowfall rates and lower visibility are likely to occur.
