The National Weather Service in Cleveland has laid out the forecast for what's shaping up to be a significant storm system set to roll into the western Great Lakes region by Wednesday. According to the National Weather Service update, high pressure will give Cleveland a quiet start early in the week before showers sneak in on Tuesday as a precursor to the more substantial weather event.
With the calm high setting above the Ohio Valley, the forecast suggests dry conditions that will persist into the evening. But there's a turn on the horizon. Showers are expected to make their way from the west into the region on Tuesday, with a sturdy low-pressure system developing over the southern Plains, aiming to strengthen rapidly as it lifts northeastward. A warm front is slated to glide across the area ahead of the low on Tuesday night, followed by a strong cold front on Wednesday night. "Mid-level height rises and developing return flow as the high drifts toward the Mid Atlantic combined with a fair amount of sunshine through mid afternoon will start a warming trend, and expect highs to reach the low 40s today," explains the NWS discussion.
Temperatures are projected to climb further, with lows only hitting the low to mid-30s overnight and a rise into the low to mid-50s come Tuesday. Residents should prepare for breezier conditions heading into Tuesday, with south winds picking up to 10-15 knots and gusts potentially reaching 20 knots at times. As the system advances, rainfall is going to intensify, with an NWS prediction placing the most substantial precipitation on Wednesday, driven by strong lift and moisture transport. Over the duration of this event, rainfall accumulations are forecasted to be in the range of 0.50 to 1.00 inches.
Wind advisories may very well be in the cards for parts of the area. Looking further ahead into Thursday, the region could see a transition to snow, with a bit of lake and upslope enhancement in the snowbelt, according to the NWS forecast. Snow accumulations are predicted to be modest—primarily under an inch- although certain areas may see slightly higher totals. With the system passing and high pressure forecasted to return by Friday, the weekend is shaping up to be quieter, spared from any major weather disturbances.
While the midweek squall needs watching, marine conditions are controlled by high pressure, keeping winds on Lake Erie at or below 15 knots. These conditions will shift, with higher winds and possible gale force gusts as the weather evolves midweek. Mariners should be mindful of the current ice cover on parts of Lake Erie, which could move significantly with increased winds, providing both hazards and challenges.
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