According to the National Weather Service in Honolulu, the state is on track to see a steady increase in showers, beginning with intensifying rain chances as the week progresses. This shift in weather patterns is attributed to southerly winds associated with an approaching cold front and an upper-level disturbance that's ferrying moisture northward toward the islands. By the weekend, these conditions are expected to culminate in more widespread rainfall.
In its forecast discussion, the National Weather Service elaborates on the changing weather dynamic, expecting mostly cloudy skies at times, coupled with a steady climb in precipitation probabilities. Notably, the anticipated influx in moisture will further lead to humid conditions, and with south to southeast winds continuing, the presence of volcanic smog, or "vog," is likely to linger across the state's skies. The service predicts that "a deep moisture axis and frontal boundary are expected to reach the western islands Wednesday night into Thursday," with the resultant weather pattern leaning toward the wetter side as the weekend nears.
Aviators should take note that light southeast to south winds will permit land breezes to persist until mid-morning, with isolated light showers possible as the day progresses. Conditions are set to change by late morning, as southerly winds strengthen due to a frontal system approaching the island chain from the northwest. More scattered showers may occur over the interior regions this afternoon with isolated activity elsewhere, possibly causing brief periods of reduced visibilities and lower ceilings.
Marine life is also due for a shake-up, as the weather system to the northwest elevates winds, which will subsequently veer to the southeast and south. Small Craft Advisory warnings are in effect as of noon today until 6 PM HST Tuesday, particularly around Kauai and the Big Island where high winds are expected, according to the National Weather Service. This advisory covers waters where advisory level winds will likely necessitate extra caution, and further extensions through Tuesday night may become necessary. Moderate to fresh northeast trades are forecast to follow in the wake of the front toward the end of the week.
For surfers, the news is mixed. A series of small, overlapping swells from the north and northeast suggest some activity along exposed shores through midweek, while a more significant north-northwest swell, arriving late in the week, threatens to bring warning-level surf by the weekend. On the flip side, surf along southern shores should decrease today, stabilizing near seasonal norms later in the week albeit potentially choppy conditions due to the changing winds.
The National Weather Service has cemented the advisory status for marine areas, with a Small Craft Advisory in effect for the Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters, Big Island Windward Waters, and Big Island Leeward Waters. These advisories are a clear signal for mariners to exercise caution and remain alert to changing conditions on the water.
