Residents of Northern Ohio and surrounding regions, prepare for an eventful weather week ahead. The National Weather Service Cleveland, OH, has forecasted a brief period of calm before an intense wintry storm takes center stage midweek. Today, high pressure is expected to pave the way for a clearer sky after lake effect flurries subside. Tonight, the skies should remain partly to mostly clear, leading to sunny conditions on Monday, with a slight increase in cloud cover anticipated late in the day.
The tranquility will be short-lived, however, as a strong low-pressure system, brewing over the Plains, is slated to march into the Great Lakes, bringing a warm front on Tuesday followed by a cold front on Wednesday. This setup is known to induce major wind events in the region come March. As high pressure gives way, Monday night temps are expected to drop, setting the stage for the impending tumultuous weather. Tuesday will see a gradual rise in temperatures across the board, with highs anticipated to range from the low to mid-40s in Ohio to upper 30s in Pennsylvania, as per the NWS discussion.
The "big windstorm" is expected to be the major story of this forecast period. According to NWS Cleveland, the remarkable consistency of both deterministic and ensemble guidance spells confidence in predicting this windstorm, hinged on a classic March setup in the southern Great Lakes. The convergence of southern and northern stream troughs, alongside a jet streak, will likely lead to a surface low-pressure system that will rapidly intensify as it approaches the western Great Lakes.
From Monday night onward, Ohioans should brace for a more aggressive change, with rain showers set to develop throughout Tuesday. "The initial warm air advection and isentropic ascent will begin Monday night, but given very dry low-levels, opted to keep the forecast dry with just increasing clouds," according to the NWS discussion. While the rain is expected to swell Tuesday night into widespread rainfall, the brevity of the heavy downpour likely averts any flooding concerns. Winds, however, will build up significantly on Tuesday night, maintaining their onslaught into Wednesday evening, potentially gusting over 50 mph, and possibly warranting Wind Advisories or High Wind Warnings, especially near lakeshores and northwest Ohio.
As for Lake Erie's marine conditions, while Small Craft Advisories aren't currently in place due to significant ice cover, mariners should remain vigilant as the midweek storm system could signal a Gale Watch. High pressure will offer a brief respite until late in the week when another trough and cold front could hit, per the NWS Cleveland's marine forecast. In aviation, expect clear skies through the TAF period with potential disruptions starting Tuesday through Thursday amidst the expected windstorm.
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