Honolulu's weather is shaping up to be a calm period before the next round of rain, with forecasters predicting mostly dry and stable conditions today, aside from some showers favoring windward and southeast-facing slopes. According to a report from the National Weather Service in Honolulu, light east to southeast winds will continue through the early morning hours, bringing limited rainfall, primarily overnight.
It’s a brief respite, as shower chances are on an upward trend throughout the week, with an oncoming cold front and an accompanying upper disturbance expected to draw more moisture into the islands. Model guidance is holding steady until Monday, indicating that the deep-layer ridging will keep conditions stable. We will see only light to moderate showers, which is good news for those planning outdoor activities or laundry, despite the sparse presence of land breezes by late morning.
The weather pattern is set to evolve from Monday with a low-level flow veering out of the south and increasing to moderate levels. "This evolving pattern will result in lowering mid- to upper-level heights and increased moisture being drawn northward into the region, initially over the western end of the state," NWS details in their synopsis. This means that by the second half of the week, we could be looking at rain clouds making a more persistent appearance.
As we head towards the weekend, the certainty of sunshine becomes rather cloudy - literally and figuratively - with models hinting at a wet pattern that could cover much of the islands. Despite some discrepancies between models, there is a consensus that deep moisture and the associated front will make an entrance, potentially leading to widespread rainfall by next weekend.
In marine news, the sea offers a mix bag for sailors and surfers alike. The western islands will witness light and variable winds today while the eastern end can expect light to moderate east-southeasterly trades. By Monday, though, the winds will start to feel the effects of a storm system to the northwest, signaling a shift and possible advisory level winds near the Big Island. "A more significant north-northwest swell appears to arrive late in the week, potentially bringing warning level surf to north and west facing shores next weekend," according to the marine forecast section of the NWS report.
Currently, no advisories or warnings are in effect, indicating a period of stable weather for the next few days before potential storms arrive. Residents are encouraged to monitor local forecasts for any updates as conditions evolve.
