A potent storm system has been wreaking havoc across the Greater Cleveland area, bringing a mix of severe weather threats from widespread rain showers and damaging synoptic winds to strong, possibly severe thunderstorms. According to the National Weather Service in Cleveland, the well-advertised storm system that began early Wednesday morning is expected to persist and bring multiple hazards, including the risk of snow on the backside of the event.
The NWS detailed that the first wave of impact was already underway in the early hours, propelled by a robust low-level jet ahead of the warm front. The immediate consequences included the likelihood of seeing S to SE winds gusting to 30-40 knots, mainly west of I-71 and along the lakeshore. A brief respite might be experienced in the afternoon, only to intensify following a cold frontal passage slated for this evening. Winds could then whip up from the SW, turning WNW with gusts hurtling up to 40-45 knots at times.
In addition to wind, the storm system has been forecasted to deliver strong to severe thunderstorm activity. With "shear off the charts," the NWS anticipates the development of a broken line of convection immediately ahead of the cold front this afternoon and evening. The risk of damaging winds, hail, and a brief spin-up tornado has compelled the NWS to suggest the probability of a "classic low CAPE, high shear cold season event." This comes as forecast soundings project SBCAPE over 500 J/Kg and MLCAPE over 250 J/Kg.
Precipitation has also been an area of concern, with widespread rain impacting broad upper-level diffluence and warm air advection. The NWS mentions a dry slot punching behind the warm front that should "limit QPF, so do not expect any flooding impacts." However, the forecasters caution that strong cold air advection tonight will turn leftover rain into snow, with 1 to 3 inches expected in the inland primary and secondary snowbelts, which could render Thursday morning's commute especially treacherous.
Looking ahead, a brief cooldown will follow the storm system as surface high pressure builds in from the west Thursday night. Yet another cold front is predicted to cross the region on Friday, potentially bringing rain and snow. Temperatures, after reaching highs in the upper 50s and low 60s ahead of the front today, will plummet to the upper 20s tonight and peak in the low to upper 30s on Thursday. According to the NWS forecast, the pattern of unsettled weather seems set to persist through the weekend.
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