The National Weather Service in Honolulu has issued its latest weather forecast for the region, indicating that light to occasionally moderate east to southeasterly winds are expected to remain steady through the upcoming week and into the next weekend, with "only slight variations in speed and direction." These conditions mean that clouds and showers will favor windward areas overnight and leeward and interior spots in the afternoon, as per the NWS.
Today's update from the weather mavens warns of a potential uptick in showers, specifically on the western end of the state, due to a front stalling north of Kauai, although overall showers should be limited. The NWS forecast attributes light northerly winds ahead of the front as the cause for a convergent zone over Kauai, while light southeasterly flow will mostly affect the Big Island; meanwhile, a rain shadow will exist elsewhere staving off greater shower activity, which is something to consider for those planning outdoor activities or travel within the islands.
VFR (Visual Flight Rules) conditions are expected to be the norm outside of the isolated showers predicted for windward areas this morning, as detailed by the NWS's aviation-focused forecast. This forecast provides a sigh of relief for aviators and travelers alike, who can anticipate minimal disruptions in overall visibility, except for a potential disruption with the sea breezes along coastal areas in the afternoon.
The marine outlook, as reported by the NWS, maintains that a weak east southeasterly flow will continue to be the prevailing condition, with this flow slightly increasing and veering, as low pressure is forecast to develop far northwest of the state through Tuesday night, likely a matter of interest for seafarers and those involved in marine transport, especially as a High Surf Warning remains effective for most north and west facing shores of the smaller islands through this afternoon. An extra large, long-period northwest swell has already caused surges in local waters, staying higher than initially predicted.
The bulletin also includes several advisories in place due to the surfing conditions and swells: the High Surf Warning is in effect until 6 PM HST today for multiple locations including Niihau, Kauai Leeward, and Maui Windward West, among others, and a High Surf Advisory remains active for the west facing shores of the Big Island through tonight. Furthermore, obligatory measures are operational in the form of a Small Craft Advisory for certain waters, highlighting necessary precautions for those venturing or working at sea.
