Baltimore residents can sigh in relief as a fleeting spell of tranquility graces the skies today. Still, the respite will be short-lived as tumultuous weather is on the horizon, according to the National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC. Today's brief high-pressure interlude promises dry conditions and highs in the low to mid-60s. A weak disturbance may cause a few showers in the mountains tonight, whereas metropolitan areas remain largely unscathed, basking in 40-degree lows.
As we approach Monday, the weather pattern is set to intensify, priming the stage for potential severe thunderstorms, gusty winds, and even a chance of mountain snow as the week unfolds. The forecast discussion said a strong upper trough over the Great Lakes tracks toward the Mid-Atlantic Monday night into Tuesday. A cold front expected Monday night ushers in showers and thunderstorms, making an eventful start to the work week, and by Tuesday, wind conditions escalate, with blustery gusts that could hit 35-45 mph across much of the area and even 45-55 mph in some mountainous regions.
Be prepared for Monday evening, as the arrival of a cold front from the Ohio Valley could mean business. According to the National Weather Service prediction, models indicate a favorable environment to support severe thunderstorms Monday evening (instability aside). An Enhanced Moisture Layer (EML) moving in aloft converges with a surface front to break a capping inversion and invite severe thunderstorm development, carrying risks of damaging wind gusts and hail.
Looking further ahead, the sense of instability lingers into midweek as a reinforcing cold front sweeps across the area early Wednesday. Flurries of activity along the Allegheny Front could unfold into accumulative snow, painting a wintry collage in an otherwise spring landscape. There is potential for several inches of accumulating snow along/west of the Allegheny Front. However, confidence is low now, given the warm antecedent conditions added to the forecast.
Mariners should note that Small Craft Advisories are in effect until this afternoon, with anticipation of escalating winds through the week. Strong thunderstorms on Monday evening might again increase wind gusts, leading to the potential issuance of Special Marine Warnings. The warning comes as isolated strong thunderstorms capable of producing wind gusts over 35 knots and hail are possible, as highlighted by the National Weather Service.
