As we navigate the fickle temperament of Ohio's spring weather, the National Weather Service in Cleveland has provided an update that may have us reaching for our umbrellas soon. NWS Cleveland's latest forecast warns of scattered to widespread showers and the potential for thunderstorms clashing through the area on Thursday afternoon and evening. While a severe weather outbreak isn't expected, isolated strong to severe thunderstorms "with damaging winds being the primary threat" could materialize, particularly along the I-71 corridor.
The warm front pulling curtains of showers northward tonight into Thursday morning sets the stage for a moisture-rich low-level air mass. Dew points, that telltale measure of mugginess, are expected to rise into the lower 60s. To try to make sense of the atmosphere's drama, one only has to glance at the southwesterly 700-mb jet predicted to barrel into Indiana and Northwest Ohio by Thursday afternoon. This jet will spark off showers and thunderstorms, with northern Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania on the receiving end of around 40 knots of bulk shear. However, meteorologists are quick to point out that "poor mid-level lapse rates <6 C/km will inhibit MLCAPE to generally 1000 J/kg or less" — a technical way of saying that the energy available for storm growth will be limited, possibly muting the severity of the storms.
Today, those within the Great Lakes' reach enjoy respite as high pressure brings sunshine, with temperatures in the mid-to-upper 60s—barring a lake-effect cooling that nudges areas downwind of Lake Erie into the slightly chillier 50s. This weather breather, however, is merely the calm between stormy engagements as attention then shifts to a more tempestuous Thursday night, courtesy of a cold front. As reported by NWS Cleveland, this front could saturate the region with rain that is "efficient" due to slim CAPE profiles and precipitable water values nudging a hefty 1.40 inches.
Post-frontal weather on Friday remains unsettled, with another surface trough crossing the forecast area, potentially triggering scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon. Even as the work week wanes and the curtain falls on Friday, North-Ohioans aren't quite ready to put away their rain gear. The temperature rollercoaster will take another dip, with highs settling around the upper 50s to near 60 degrees on Saturday, accompanied by a steadfast northern wind. It seems that Lake Erie's mariners might also want to keep a wary eye on the skies, as the NWS hints at "choppy conditions" resulting from north winds of 10-15 knots over the weekend.
Looking further out, the long-term forecast remains a battlefield of meteorological models with differing strategies. While one camp, led by the GFS, moves towards a dry and warmer start to next week, an alternative forecast suggests cooler temperatures amid persisting showers. Thus, we are left with a forecast that walks the line, leaning towards the drier side yet withholding firm commitment until the atmospheric actors make their definitive moves. As Northeast Ohioans know all too well, weather has a way of keeping us on our toes—or, at the very least, keeping our weather apps close at hand.
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