Pittsburgh residents can enjoy some relative calm before the storm literally, with forecasters at the National Weather Service predicting dry conditions and typical temperatures for a Sunday in April. However, the forecast isn't all clear skies—the city should brace for potential strong to severe storms come Monday afternoon into the evening, followed by strong winds on Tuesday. Based on reports from the National Weather Service in Pittsburgh, PA, today's weather will be devoid of precipitation, while the nearing week is expected to bring turbulent changes.
As we delve into the near-term weather outlook, it's noted that after a morning with possible fog and a day where temps sit near the seasonal average, light showers may sneak in Sunday night due to a weak mid-level shortwave that's on approach—the likelihood of any significant accumulation from these showers remains low, though, as the models are indicating isolated to scattered activity with chances of precipitation peaking at a not-so-confident 30 percent also, strong winds are projectable for Tuesday, potentially gusting between 35 to 45 mph according to the 50th percentile of the National Blend of Models (NBM) with an outside chance of hitting up to 50 mph in lowland areas and 60 mph on the ridges.
Turning to the short term, which spans from this evening through Tuesday night, anticipation for severe weather is building, with the National Weather Service highlighting that the region will be pushed into the warm sector, with a strong push of warm and moist air ahead of a potent low over the upper Great Lakes. The grim conjunction of adequate shear and questionable instability may lead to organized convection, posing risks for hail and gusty winds. At the same time, tornadoes remain a secondary concern, given the dependency on low-level instability. Post-storm, as the front passes through overnight Monday, high confidence remains in stark cold advection, which could lead to more showers and even snow showers in higher terrains, including east of Interstate 80 and Tucker County in particular, where there's a 40% chance of seeing an inch or more of accumulation.
Looking ahead, the long-term forecast through Saturday sees a continuation of gusty conditions on Wednesday, mostly affecting eastern Tucker County. At the same time, the rest of the week should present a mix of dry conditions and seasonable temperatures until the next disturbance arrives late Friday, increasing the likelihood of showers and potentially thunderstorms as the weekend unfolds. The aviation sector will also feel the impact, with the potential for restrictions on both Monday during the cold front's passage and Tuesday during the upper trough. Meanwhile, the National Weather Service has released an outlook suggesting airports may have to operate cautiously amidst forecasted wind gusts potentially reaching 30 to 40 knots.
As of the latest weather dispatch from the National Weather Service in Pittsburgh, PA, no advisories, watches, or warnings were in place. Yet the situation remains dynamic, and updates can be found on their official website, including the full Area Forecast Discussion document.
