The latest weather forecast from the National Weather Service in Cleveland outlines a typical spring scenario over northeastern Ohio. According to the NWS discussion, the region is under the influence of a high-pressure ridge extending from New England today. This setup has been providing well above normal temperatures and mostly sunny skies.
Clevelanders can expect temperatures to be 3-5 degrees warmer than they were yesterday. There's also a lake breeze predicted to drop temperatures marginally this afternoon as winds shift off the cooler Lake Erie. The NWS forecasts "Lake Erie water temperatures remain in the upper 40s to lower 50s and will be sufficient for onshore winds to develop." This typically pleasant weather is expected to shift with an incoming low pressure on Friday.
Rain probabilities will increase as moisture accumulates across the Ohio Valley tonight, with the possibility of isolated showers developing in the southwestern counties after 4 PM. Coverage of showers is expected to be limited initially, with further expansion anticipated by Friday morning. As the ridge axis aloft shifts eastward, the region will see dew points rise to near 60 degrees on Friday, mixing with highs in the 70s to create modest instability for thunderstorms, potentially with locally heavy rain.
Heading into Friday night, the weather scene gets more active. "Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected as weak to moderate instability, including elevated instability, is released," the NWS reports. Some of these weather events might become strong to severe, particularly Friday evening, thanks to the moderate deep layer bulk shear and relatively stronger MUCAPE in play. Winds behind a cold front moving into Lake Erie on Saturday morning will intensify, potentially necessitating a Small Craft Advisory for boaters.
Saturday through Monday, a high-pressure system will build south out of Canada, bringing fair weather. Clearing skies and subsiding winds will pave the way for cooler nights, which could lead to frost formation in some valleys. The NWS highlights an increasing frost potential, which it will continue to monitor closely. By Sunday, abundant sunshine will elevate daytime temperatures, though lake breezes may keep zones adjacent to Lake Erie on the cooler side.
As the high-pressure ridge aloft builds from the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes from Monday onwards, conditions over Lake Erie are expected to favor stable weather and moderate temperatures heading toward the upper 70s to mid 80s by Tuesday afternoon. The NWS also notes that strong to severe thunderstorms may manifest during this period.
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