Baltimore is bracing for a mix of weather conditions over the next few days, from lingering drizzles to potential thunderstorms, according to the National Weather Service, Baltimore, MD/Washington, DC. In their latest forecast, the National Weather Service announced a low-pressure system drifting northeast today, followed by a warm front tonight, which could spell an array of conditions for the area. "Clouds may take well into the afternoon to break up northeast of the Potomac, while more sun is expected to the southwest," the forecast stated.
The forecast goes on to predict a slight risk of severe storms developing near the central Appalachians to Blue Ridge vicinity this afternoon and moving southeast by evening, these storms could bring large hail and damaging winds, with the Storm Prediction Center having added a slight risk for severe storms in the region meanwhile, incongruous models differ on the extent of impact expected, with most 00Z guidance keeping the stronger storms south of I-66. In terms of temperature, those areas getting some sunshine might see highs stepping right over the 80-degree mark, while the northeast could hold a more modest mid-70s.
As for the short-term outlook running through Saturday night, the prospects of thunderstorms are hinging on several variables. "Current guidance favors several periods, but this could obviously change," warned the National Weather Service, signaling the volatility in weather patterns and thunderstorm formation dependent on multiple upstream factors. If these elements don't pan out, Friday, in particular, could remain mostly dry aside from the severe weather conditions predicted; both CAPE and shear throughout the period would be supportive of potentially dangerous storms, especially during peak heating or if they are previously organized.
The long-term forecast promises some respite, with cooler, drier weather expected to set in come Sunday, driven by a departing upper low/trough and high pressure building to the north. The marine forecast similarly suggests a relative calm, with sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions dominating until the weekend, when stormy weather could impose stronger winds and the potential for severe thunderstorms on the waters, primarily in the southern Maryland areas. Also, NW winds may gust 20-25 kts Sunday, reducing conditions before a milder Monday.
Complications from freshwater flooding are also on Baltimore's radar, with a Coastal Flood Warning in effect and anticipated moderate flooding in Georgetown due to freshwater influence. "Water should recede Friday," forecasts the National Weather Service, marking an end to the imminent threat. Residents are advised to stay current with the latest weather bulletins and exercise caution during potential severe weather events.
