As Cleveland braces for a dynamic weather weekend, the National Weather Service in Cleveland has released a forecast that spells out a series of atmospheric changes. Per the latest update, the region saw a warm front lift north this morning, with a slow-moving low pressure system trailing behind it from the north-central U.S. This low is set to drag a cold front through the area today, stalling over central Ohio by the afternoon before swinging back north as a warm front tonight. Residents should expect the return of high pressure by Sunday, carrying into the early part of next week.
While the early morning convection largely cleared out, with the exception of a couple of thunderstorms hanging on in the Mahoning Valley, the atmosphere remains charged with potential for severe weather. Despite a strong CAP - a layer of air that inhibits convection, which storms must overcome to develop, there's no ruling out the possibility of isolated severe weather in far NE Ohio and NW PA over the next few hours. NWS in Cleveland forecasts have noted "1500-2000 J/kg of SBCAPE across the area with DCAPE values of 1000-1200 J/kg," signaling ample energy for storm formation. The concern mainly lies with gusty winds and, to a lesser extent, hail.
Clevelanders should take advantage of this afternoon's clearing skies and warm air advection, which are expected to push temperatures into the low to mid 80s. However, another warm front this evening will be followed closely by a stronger cold front, heralding a new bout of showers and thunderstorms. As a result, the Storm Prediction Center has placed much of the region in a Day 1 Slight Risk of severe storms, while areas in far NE Ohio and NW PA fall under a Marginal Risk. The primary risks include damaging winds, possible hail, and isolated tornadoes, in addition to flooding concerns from heavy rainfall. A special note was made to stay weather aware over the course of the day and night due to the increased potential for an overnight event.
Saturday's forecast indicates a decrease in shower activity from west to east following the cold front's passage. Yet, the eastern areas of the forecast zone may still see lingering rainfall, courtesy of a remaining surface trough. Foreseen to drop further behind the front are temperatures, tumbling into the low to mid 60s, while gusty winds may add an extra chill. After the wet and blustery conditions, a period of cooler weather ensues with below-normal temperatures sticking around into the beginning of the long-term forecast period.
In terms of aviation, the regional advisory from the NWS mentioned, "Patchy MVFR conditions" resulting from morning convection, predicting VFR conditions to dominate following this morning's clear-up. This window of clear skies is expected to be short-lived, however, with the forecast calling for another round of potential showers and thunderstorms impacting visibility and possibly bringing lower cloud ceilings tonight into Saturday. For mariners, the Lake Erie waters anticipate winds transitioning from west-southwesterly to southerly, climbing to 15-20 knots tomorrow as the weekend weather system progresses.
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