The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has forecast a potentially stormy scenario for the region today, drawing attention to the possible risks of severe weather and flooding. According to their early morning Area Forecast Discussion, residents should brace for a cold front that promises to disturb the peace on Monday.
While some areas faced patchy fog at dawn, the primary threat appears to be the chance of severe storms and heavy rainfall. Forecast models suggest a mixed bag in terms of how much instability will be present as an upper-level low swings through Ohio by the afternoon, potentially sparking a line of storms. "The agreement between the 2 ensembles paints the picture for a developed line of storms crossing the area," according to the National Weather Service. This setup could include damaging winds and an isolated tornado threat due to a southwest wind profile with at least 40 knots of shear.
Flooding is also a concern, but the fast-moving nature of the storms, coupled with the precipitable water values being within the 75th percentile, seems to reduce the overall threat. The National Weather Service cautions, "The one concern here is with training storms and if storms fall into this motion, expect the instance of flooding." Despite the potential for isolated instances of flooding, a Flood Watch has not been issued.
Looking ahead, the short-term forecast continues the theme of unsettled weather through Tuesday morning, with conditions expected to dry out later on Tuesday. Residents can look forward to a mid-week respite as high pressure brings dry and less humid weather from Wednesday through Thursday night. However, the chance for rain reemerges heading into the weekend. "Saturday and Sunday will need monitored," the National Weather Service Pittsburgh notes, due to the potential for prolonged southwest to northeast moisture advection that could elevate flooding concerns again.
For the aviation sector, early morning fog and stratus are expected to clear after sunrise, improving visibility. The impending prefrontal surface trough may lead to another bout of adverse conditions this afternoon and evening as showers and thunderstorms develop.
