The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued an area weather forecast indicating scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected for Pittsburgh this afternoon and again on Tuesday, with a few storms potentially producing damaging winds and localized flooding. According to the NWS Pittsburgh Area Forecast Discussion, the primary concerns include strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon, along with the likelihood of heavy rainfall.
The forecast warned of strong to severe thunderstorms, which could carry into Tuesday, explaining that increasing mid-level shear during the afternoon should be enough to support stronger updrafts and a few isolated severe thunderstorms, while simultaneously noting that the lack of dry air aloft may inhibit a more widespread downburst threat. The National Weather Service adds, "Damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazard."
Beyond the threat of storms, the NWS mentioned humid conditions and temperatures several degrees above the seasonal average, which are expected to continue into the short term, spanning through Wednesday night. Although no Heat Advisory criteria are expected to be met, the lingering humidity will still take a toll on comfort levels outside.
A cold front expected on Tuesday could bring some reprieve in terms of clearing and cooler temperatures overnight as it ushers in a drier air mass. However, Thursday might see a return of showers and storm chances with the passage of another cold front. Timing remains uncertain, but there's a calculated probability of severe weather depending on the exact timing of the front.
The aviation sector isn't immune to these weather developments. A few showers may impact ZZV and FKL this morning; otherwise, most TAF sites are expected to remain VFR under mid- and upper-level cloud cover, according to the NWS. Clear skies and the absence of inclement weather aren't expected to prevail, as numerous showers and thunderstorms are anticipated to develop by early to mid-afternoon, potentially impacting visibility at airports with MVFR restrictions for now, although IFR conditions will be possible in locally heavy rainfall.
Looking ahead, the Independence Day forecast appears promising with dry weather courtesy of mid-level ridging. However, late next weekend, rain chances creep back into the picture. The NWS sums up the longer-term outlook: Most of Saturday looks dry at this time, with even the faster solutions holding precipitation chances off until early Sunday. Therefore, it is most likely that a more unsettled pattern will return for the latter half of the weekend and into next week.
